NYSE: C · Diversified Banks
Citigroup (C) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Citigroup (C) at $131.73 a share. The stock last closed at $128.50, which puts the model's fair value 2.5% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Citigroup Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Citigroup, Inc. is a holding company which engages in the provision of financial products and services through its Services, Markets, Banking, Wealth, U.S. Personal Banking (USPB), and All Other segments.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $131.73 a share on 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved +1.2% from the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $130.11. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $118.00 to $147.99, built around the price from implied volatility and calibrated weekly, and it held the price 60% of the time. The evidence grade is High.
The model compares Citigroup Inc. with Wells Fargo & Company (WFC), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), and BlackRock, Inc. (BLK). The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports show a median size of 2.8%, ignoring direction, with examples including 14 Jul 2026 -4.1% and 15 Jan 2025 +6.8%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give C?
The calibrated range for C over 63 trading days is $118.00 to $147.99. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that C's own options imply (32% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $109.84 to $155.87. In 55% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does C compare with similar companies?
The companies in diversified banks closest to Citigroup in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WFC Wells Fargo & Company | $80.45 | $92.65 | +15.2% | Undervalued |
| BAC Bank of America Corporation | $53.75 | $52.83 | -1.7% | Low evidence grade |
| JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co. | $332.38 | $318.53 | -4.2% | Fairly valued |
| AXP American Express Company | $302.78 | $367.88 | +21.5% | Low evidence grade |
| GS The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. | $902.56 | $965.29 | +7.0% | Low evidence grade |
| SCHW The Charles Schwab Corporation | $96.70 | $73.76 | -23.7% | Low evidence grade |
| BLK BlackRock, Inc. | $1,059.63 | $1,067.59 | +0.8% | Fairly valued |
| MS Morgan Stanley | $190.31 | $128.98 | -32.2% | Low evidence grade |
When does C report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Citigroup's next earnings report is scheduled for 13 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 5.2% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. C's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 9.3% over one month.
How C moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.8%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 14 Jul 2026 | -4.1% |
| 14 Apr 2026 | +4.3% |
| 21 Jan 2026 | +2.5% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | -0.9% |
| 15 Jul 2025 | +2.9% |
| 15 Apr 2025 | -1.8% |
| 15 Jan 2025 | +6.8% |
| 15 Oct 2024 | -2.7% |
Citigroup at a glance
Citigroup, Inc. is a holding company, which engages in the provision of financial products and services. It operates through the following segments: Services, Markets, Banking, Wealth, U.S. Personal Banking (USPB), and All Other.
- Market value
- $220.4B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Diversified Banks
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -43.0%
- Analysts with estimates
- 12
- Beta to the US market
- 1.62
- First valued by Faircurve
- 4 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Citigroup on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for C was $130.11. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $131.73, a change of +1.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Citigroup's valuation
Is Citigroup stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, C reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $131.73 a share against a last close of $128.50, a gap of +2.5%.
What is C's fair value?
$131.73 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $109.84 to $155.87.
What price range does the model give C?
$118.00 to $147.99 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Citigroup report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 13 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has C moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was +6.8% around the report of 15 Jan 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for C is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.