NYSE: CAG ยท Packaged Foods
Conagra Brands (CAG) fair value and price range
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Conagra Brands (CAG) at $17.18 a share. The stock last closed at $13.36, which puts the model's fair value 28.6% above the price. The inputs behind this valuation are under review, so no verdict is shown.
- The latest balance sheet shows far less debt than the quarter before, with no matching repayment.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Conagra Brands, Inc.
What price range does the model give CAG?
The calibrated range for CAG over 63 trading days is $12.32 to $15.40. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that CAG's own options imply (32% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $14.39 to $20.24. In 89% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does CAG score on business quality?
Conagra Brands's overall quality score is 37 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 0 | -24.8%ROIC | 8.1% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 92 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 26 | -2.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 2.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 54 | 0.7%Net buybacks / market value | 1.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 70 | -0.26xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.91x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 8 | 10.5 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.4 pts |
How does CAG compare with similar companies?
The companies in packaged foods closest to Conagra Brands in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPC Pilgrim's Pride Corporation | $27.50 | $32.30 | +17.5% | Undervalued |
| INGR Ingredion Incorporated | $95.33 | $105.71 | +10.9% | Fairly valued |
| LW Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. | $43.60 | $46.03 | +5.6% | Low evidence grade |
| CPB Campbell Soup Company | $19.62 | $15.76 | -19.7% | Overvalued |
| DAR Darling Ingredients Inc. | $62.94 | $65.99 | +4.8% | Fairly valued |
| HRL Hormel Foods Corporation | $20.25 | $19.82 | -2.1% | Fairly valued |
| MKC McCormick & Company, Incorporated | $44.67 | $41.90 | -6.2% | Fairly valued |
| SJM The J. M. Smucker Company | $117.19 | $126.02 | +7.5% | Fairly valued |
When does CAG report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Conagra Brands's next earnings report is scheduled for 18 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 6.6% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 27 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. CAG's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 9.1% over one month.
On 30 Sep 2026 CAG moved 4.7% in one session, against the 2.1% a day that options had priced: 2.2 times the implied size, around an earnings report.
How CAG moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.6%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Sep 2026 | -6.6% |
| 15 Jul 2026 | +2.3% |
| 1 Apr 2026 | 0.0% |
| 19 Dec 2025 | -3.0% |
| 1 Oct 2025 | +4.8% |
| 10 Jul 2025 | -4.8% |
| 3 Apr 2025 | +1.1% |
| 19 Dec 2024 | -0.9% |
Conagra Brands at a glance
Conagra Brands, Inc., a prominent manufacturer of packaged food products, conducts its business across North America through its various subsidiary companies.
- Market value
- $6.9B
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Packaged Foods
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $10.8B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -3.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 8
- Beta to the US market
- -0.40
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Conagra Brands on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for CAG was $11.84. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $17.18, a change of +45.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Conagra Brands's valuation
Is Conagra Brands stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts CAG's fair value at $17.18 a share against a last close of $13.36, as of 3 Oct 2026. The inputs behind this valuation are under review, so no verdict is shown.
What is CAG's fair value?
$17.18 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $14.39 to $20.24.
What price range does the model give CAG?
$12.32 to $15.40 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Conagra Brands report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 18 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CAG moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was -6.6% around the report of 30 Sep 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CAG is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.