NYSE: CCL · Travel Services
Carnival Corporation (CCL) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 2 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Carnival Corporation (CCL) at $35.51 a share. The stock last closed at $25.76, which puts the model's fair value 37.8% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Carnival Corporation & plc.
Faircurve Insights · 2 Oct 2026
Carnival Corporation & plc operates as a prominent global entity in the leisure travel sector.
Faircurve's model on 2 Oct 2026 gave a fair value of $35.51 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $31.99, so the fair value moved +11.0%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $23.33 to $30.64, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade was Medium.
The company's overall quality score was 34 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Expedia Group, Inc., Airbnb, Inc., Booking Holdings Inc., Travel + Leisure Co., and Tripadvisor, Inc. The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports, measured from the close before each report to the close after it, were +10.8%, -4.2%, -5.2%, +13.6%, -5.6%, +6.0%, +1.1%, and +2.2%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 2 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give CCL?
The calibrated range for CCL over 63 trading days is $23.33 to $30.64. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that CCL's own options imply (38% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $24.09 to $48.85. In 77% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does CCL score on business quality?
Carnival Corporation's overall quality score is 34 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 30 | 11.6%ROIC | 19.9% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 57 | 1.01xFCF / net income | 1.17x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 45 | 6.4%Revenue growth, trailing | 7.7% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 6 | 1.6%Net buybacks / market value | 4.6% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 38 | 3.30xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.85x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 0 | 111.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 3.2 pts |
How does CCL compare with similar companies?
The companies in travel services closest to Carnival Corporation in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXPE Expedia Group, Inc. | $265.00 | $329.19 | +24.2% | Undervalued |
| RCL Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. | $277.74 | $258.69 | -6.9% | Low evidence grade |
| ABNB Airbnb, Inc. | $162.43 | $151.05 | -7.0% | Fairly valued |
| BKNG Booking Holdings Inc. | $159.02 | $189.22 | +19.0% | Undervalued |
| NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. | $15.14 | $27.05 | +78.7% | Gap wider than 60% |
| TNL Travel + Leisure Co. | $62.92 | $87.39 | +38.9% | Undervalued |
| TRIP Tripadvisor, Inc. | $8.51 | $9.67 | +13.6% | Fairly valued |
When does CCL report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Carnival Corporation's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 5.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. CCL's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 11.1% over one month.
On 29 Sep 2026 CCL moved 13.4% in one session, against the 3.1% a day that options had priced: 4.4 times the implied size, around an earnings report.
How CCL moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.4%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 29 Sep 2026 | +10.8% |
| 23 Jun 2026 | -4.2% |
| 27 Mar 2026 | -5.2% |
| 19 Dec 2025 | +13.6% |
| 29 Sep 2025 | -5.6% |
| 24 Jun 2025 | +6.0% |
| 21 Mar 2025 | +1.1% |
| 20 Dec 2024 | +2.2% |
Carnival Corporation at a glance
Carnival Corporation & plc operates as a prominent global entity in the leisure travel sector.
- Market value
- $30.5B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Travel Services
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $28.5B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +3.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 14
- Beta to the US market
- 1.81
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Carnival Corporation on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for CCL was $31.99. As of 2 Oct 2026 it is $35.51, a change of +11.0%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Carnival Corporation's valuation
Is Carnival Corporation stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, CCL reads as Undervalued as of 2 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $35.51 a share against a last close of $25.76, a gap of +37.8%.
What is CCL's fair value?
$35.51 a share as of 2 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $24.09 to $48.85.
What price range does the model give CCL?
$23.33 to $30.64 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Carnival Corporation report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CCL moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was +13.6% around the report of 19 Dec 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CCL is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.