NASDAQ: CDNS · Application Software
Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) fair value and price range
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) at $333.22 a share. The stock last closed at $351.35, which puts the model's fair value 5.2% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Cadence Design Systems, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Cadence Design Systems, Inc. operates globally, delivering a comprehensive suite of solutions that includes software, specialised hardware, professional services, and pre-designed integrated circuit (IC) building blocks. The company is in Technology, Application Software.
Faircurve's model valued Cadence Design Systems, Inc. at $333.22 a share on 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This is a -2.1% move from the $340.24 recorded on 26 Sep 2026. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $310.24 to $431.77, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, calibrated weekly against realised prices (3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low.
The business scored 57 out of 100 on overall quality against comparable companies, with scores of 67 for profitability, 31 for earnings quality, 59 for growth quality, 25 for capital discipline, 77 for balance sheet, and 83 for stability. Faircurve's model compares it with Datadog, Inc. (DDOG), Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP), ServiceNow, Inc. (NOW), and Strategy Inc (MSTR). Moves around the last 8 earnings reports, measured from the close before each report to the close after it, ranged from -7.2% to +10.6%, with a median size of 5.0%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give CDNS?
The calibrated range for CDNS over 63 trading days is $310.24 to $431.77. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that CDNS's own options imply (47% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $236.83 to $462.09. In 45% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does CDNS score on business quality?
Cadence Design Systems's overall quality score is 57 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 67 | 17.2%ROIC | 6.2% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 31 | 1.22xFCF / net income | 1.93x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 59 | 14.1%Revenue growth, trailing | 18.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 25 | 0.8%Net buybacks / market value | 1.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 77 | 0.48xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.69x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 83 | 1.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.4 pts |
How does CDNS compare with similar companies?
The companies in application software closest to Cadence Design Systems in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DDOG Datadog, Inc. | $277.22 | $234.92 | -15.3% | Overvalued |
| ADBE Adobe Inc. | $237.69 | $268.21 | +12.8% | Low evidence grade |
| ADP Automatic Data Processing, Inc. | $257.68 | $254.03 | -1.4% | Fairly valued |
| APP AppLovin Corporation | $268.22 | $308.80 | +15.1% | Low evidence grade |
| INTU Intuit Inc. | $281.08 | $377.55 | +34.3% | Low evidence grade |
| UBER Uber Technologies, Inc. | $68.11 | $67.15 | -1.4% | Low evidence grade |
| NOW ServiceNow, Inc. | $134.38 | $119.48 | -11.1% | Fairly valued |
| MSTR Strategy Inc | $160.01 | $142.73 | -10.8% | Fairly valued |
When does CDNS report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Cadence Design Systems's next earnings report is scheduled for 26 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 5.9% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. CDNS's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 13.6% over one month.
On 1 Oct 2026 CDNS moved 6.2% in one session, against the 3.0% a day that options had priced: 2.0 times the implied size.
How CDNS moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.0%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 27 Jul 2026 | +5.7% |
| 27 Apr 2026 | -2.3% |
| 17 Feb 2026 | +1.9% |
| 27 Oct 2025 | -1.1% |
| 28 Jul 2025 | +10.3% |
| 28 Apr 2025 | +4.3% |
| 18 Feb 2025 | -7.2% |
| 28 Oct 2024 | +10.6% |
Cadence Design Systems at a glance
Cadence Design Systems, Inc. operates globally, delivering a comprehensive suite of solutions that includes software, specialized hardware, professional services, and pre-designed integrated circuit (IC) building blocks.
- Market value
- $96.8B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Application Software
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $7.0B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +19.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 11
- Beta to the US market
- 1.68
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Cadence Design Systems on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for CDNS was $340.24. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $333.22, a change of -2.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Cadence Design Systems's valuation
Is Cadence Design Systems stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts CDNS's fair value at $333.22 a share against a last close of $351.35, as of 3 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is CDNS's fair value?
$333.22 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $236.83 to $462.09.
What price range does the model give CDNS?
$310.24 to $431.77 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Cadence Design Systems report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 26 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CDNS moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was +10.6% around the report of 28 Oct 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CDNS is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.