NASDAQ: CEG · Independent Power Producers
Constellation Energy (CEG) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Constellation Energy (CEG) at $235.71 a share. The stock last closed at $257.49, which puts the model's fair value 8.5% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Constellation Energy Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Constellation Energy Corporation is a U.S.-based firm dedicated to producing and distributing electricity. The company operates in the Utilities, Independent Power Producers sector.
Faircurve's model on 26 Sep 2026 found a fair value of $235.71 a share, which is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved +2.2% from the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $230.57. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $228.89 to $316.33, built around the price from implied option volatility and calibrated weekly against realised prices. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, across 3,330 past valuations. The evidence grade for this valuation is Medium.
The business has an overall quality score of 58 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its profitability score is 72, earnings quality 23, growth quality 62, capital discipline 58, balance sheet 56, and stability 83. The model compares it with Vistra Corp. (VST), The Southern Company (SO), Duke Energy Corporation (DUK), American Electric Power Company, Inc. (AEP), NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE), and Dominion Energy, Inc. (D). Around its last 8 earnings reports, the stock moved +1.8% on 6 Aug 2026, -3.3% on 11 May 2026, +10.9% on 24 Feb 2026, +2.7% on 7 Nov 2025, -0.8% on 7 Aug 2025, +8.0% on 6 May 2025, +1.4% on 18 Feb 2025, and -9.4% on 4 Nov 2024.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give CEG?
The calibrated range for CEG over 63 trading days is $228.89 to $316.33. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that CEG's own options imply (46% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $167.28 to $321.57. In 38% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does CEG score on business quality?
Constellation Energy's overall quality score is 58 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 72 | 5.5%ROIC | 4.9% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 23 | 0.09xFCF / net income | 0.47x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 62 | 8.3%Revenue growth, trailing | 17.5% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 58 | 2.1%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 56 | 2.78xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.73x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 83 | 3.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 9.7 pts |
How does CEG compare with similar companies?
The companies in independent power producers closest to Constellation Energy in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VST Vistra Corp. | $140.02 | $154.57 | +10.4% | Fairly valued |
| NRG NRG Energy, Inc. | $95.23 | $101.60 | +6.7% | Low evidence grade |
| TLN Talen Energy Corporation | $320.77 | $268.23 | -16.4% | Low evidence grade |
| SO The Southern Company | $83.72 | $79.63 | -4.9% | Fairly valued |
| DUK Duke Energy Corporation | $114.13 | $116.18 | +1.8% | Fairly valued |
| AEP American Electric Power Company, Inc. | $119.57 | $123.21 | +3.0% | Fairly valued |
| NEE NextEra Energy, Inc. | $76.83 | $69.24 | -9.9% | Fairly valued |
| D Dominion Energy, Inc. | $61.31 | $53.43 | -12.9% | Fairly valued |
When does CEG report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Constellation Energy's next earnings report is scheduled for 9 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 6.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. CEG's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 13.2% over one month.
How CEG moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.0%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | +1.8% |
| 11 May 2026 | -3.3% |
| 24 Feb 2026 | +10.9% |
| 7 Nov 2025 | +2.7% |
| 7 Aug 2025 | -0.8% |
| 6 May 2025 | +8.0% |
| 18 Feb 2025 | +1.4% |
| 4 Nov 2024 | -9.4% |
Constellation Energy at a glance
Constellation Energy Corporation operates as a U.S.-based firm dedicated to producing and distributing electricity.
- Market value
- $94.5B
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Independent Power Producers
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $34.2B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +31.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 10
- Beta to the US market
- 1.23
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Constellation Energy on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for CEG was $230.57. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $235.71, a change of +2.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Constellation Energy's valuation
Is Constellation Energy stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, CEG reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $235.71 a share against a last close of $257.49, a gap of -8.5%.
What is CEG's fair value?
$235.71 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $167.28 to $321.57.
What price range does the model give CEG?
$228.89 to $316.33 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Constellation Energy report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 9 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CEG moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was +10.9% around the report of 24 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CEG is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.