NASDAQ: CINF · Property & Casualty Insurance
Cincinnati Financial (CINF) fair value and price range
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Cincinnati Financial (CINF) at $160.97 a share. The stock last closed at $161.95, which puts the model's fair value 0.6% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Cincinnati Financial Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Cincinnati Financial Corporation, through its subsidiaries, delivers a range of property and casualty insurance offerings across the United States.
On 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $160.97 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This was a move of +1.2% from the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $159.06. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $134.30 to $195.15, built from the fair value since there is no live options data for the stock, and held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model graded the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown.
Faircurve’s model compares Cincinnati Financial Corporation with W. R. Berkley Corporation, Assurant, Inc., American Financial Group, Inc., Old Republic International Corporation, and The Travelers Companies, Inc. The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports, measured from the close before each report to the close after it, include -0.1% on 27 Jul 2026, +0.3% on 27 Apr 2026, and -5.5% on 9 Feb 2026. The median size of these moves, ignoring direction, was 1.9%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give CINF?
The calibrated range for CINF over 63 trading days is $134.30 to $195.15. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $144.29 to $178.12. In 48% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does CINF compare with similar companies?
The companies in property & casualty insurance closest to Cincinnati Financial in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WRB W. R. Berkley Corporation | $68.98 | $59.68 | -13.5% | Fairly valued |
| L Loews Corporation | $106.03 | $97.19 | -8.3% | Low evidence grade |
| AIZ Assurant, Inc. | $267.32 | $204.09 | -23.7% | Overvalued |
| AFG American Financial Group, Inc. | $139.10 | $148.23 | +6.6% | Fairly valued |
| ALL The Allstate Corporation | $223.74 | $390.50 | +74.5% | Gap wider than 60% |
| ERIE Erie Indemnity Company | $221.09 | $150.96 | -31.7% | Low evidence grade |
| ORI Old Republic International Corporation | $38.06 | $42.40 | +11.4% | Fairly valued |
| TRV The Travelers Companies, Inc. | $360.38 | $428.08 | +18.8% | Undervalued |
All property & casualty insurance stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does CINF report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Cincinnati Financial's next earnings report is scheduled for 26 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 7.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How CINF moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 1.9%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 27 Jul 2026 | -0.1% |
| 27 Apr 2026 | +0.3% |
| 9 Feb 2026 | -5.5% |
| 27 Oct 2025 | -3.1% |
| 28 Jul 2025 | +2.0% |
| 28 Apr 2025 | +4.6% |
| 10 Feb 2025 | +1.8% |
| 24 Oct 2024 | +1.7% |
Cincinnati Financial at a glance
Cincinnati Financial Corporation, operating through its various subsidiaries, delivers a range of property and casualty insurance offerings across the United States.
- Market value
- $24.9B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Property & Casualty Insurance
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -16.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 7
- Beta to the US market
- 0.26
- First valued by Faircurve
- 4 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Cincinnati Financial on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for CINF was $159.06. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $160.97, a change of +1.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Cincinnati Financial's valuation
Is Cincinnati Financial stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts CINF's fair value at $160.97 a share against a last close of $161.95, as of 3 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is CINF's fair value?
$160.97 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $144.29 to $178.12.
What price range does the model give CINF?
$134.30 to $195.15 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Cincinnati Financial report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 26 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CINF moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 1.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was -5.5% around the report of 9 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CINF is low. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.