NYSE: COP · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
ConocoPhillips (COP) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values ConocoPhillips (COP) at $155.94 a share. The stock last closed at $126.75, which puts the model's fair value 23.0% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. ConocoPhillips.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
ConocoPhillips is an energy company that engages in the global exploration, production, transportation, and marketing of various resources, including crude petroleum, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids (NGLs).
Faircurve's model on 3 Oct 2026 found a fair value of $155.94 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This was a move of -0.5% from the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $156.65. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $116.39 to $145.98, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade was High.
The business had an overall quality score of 88 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its profitability score was 88, with ROIC at 11.0% against a peer median of 6.9%. Earnings quality was 93, with FCF / net income at 2.11x against a peer median of 1.00x. The model compares it with EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG), Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY), Devon Energy Corporation (DVN), Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG), EQT Corporation (EQT), Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL), Expand Energy Corporation (EXE), and Permian Resources Corporation (PR). The median size of moves around its last 8 earnings reports was 1.4%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give COP?
The calibrated range for COP over 63 trading days is $116.39 to $145.98. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that COP's own options imply (32% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $122.97 to $194.70. In 77% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does COP score on business quality?
ConocoPhillips's overall quality score is 88 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 88 | 11.0%ROIC | 6.9% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 93 | 2.11xFCF / net income | 1.00x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 88 | 7.7%Revenue growth, trailing | -5.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 81 | 3.4%Net buybacks / market value | 2.5% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 70 | 0.60xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.01x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 100 | 1.0 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.9 pts |
How does COP compare with similar companies?
The companies in oil & gas exploration & production closest to ConocoPhillips in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EOG EOG Resources, Inc. | $141.38 | $177.44 | +25.5% | Undervalued |
| OXY Occidental Petroleum Corporation | $58.08 | $64.59 | +11.2% | Fairly valued |
| DVN Devon Energy Corporation | $47.65 | $41.29 | -13.3% | Fairly valued |
| FANG Diamondback Energy, Inc. | $184.71 | $207.76 | +12.5% | Fairly valued |
| EQT EQT Corporation | $50.17 | $47.30 | -5.7% | Fairly valued |
| TPL Texas Pacific Land Corporation | $340.19 | $272.73 | -19.8% | Overvalued |
| EXE Expand Energy Corporation | $85.52 | $110.65 | +29.4% | Undervalued |
| PR Permian Resources Corporation | $22.12 | $30.93 | +39.8% | Undervalued |
All oil & gas exploration & production stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does COP report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
ConocoPhillips's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 4.5% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. COP's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 9.3% over one month.
How COP moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 1.4%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | +2.2% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | -3.9% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | 0.0% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | -1.0% |
| 7 Aug 2025 | +0.9% |
| 8 May 2025 | +1.0% |
| 6 Feb 2025 | -1.8% |
| 31 Oct 2024 | +4.7% |
ConocoPhillips at a glance
ConocoPhillips is an energy company that engages in the global exploration, production, transportation, and marketing of various resources, including crude petroleum, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids (NGLs).
- Market value
- $154.4B
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $67.2B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +20.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 14
- Beta to the US market
- -0.24
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices ConocoPhillips on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for COP was $156.65. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $155.94, a change of -0.5%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about ConocoPhillips's valuation
Is ConocoPhillips stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, COP reads as Undervalued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $155.94 a share against a last close of $126.75, a gap of +23.0%.
What is COP's fair value?
$155.94 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $122.97 to $194.70.
What price range does the model give COP?
$116.39 to $145.98 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does ConocoPhillips report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has COP moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 1.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was +4.7% around the report of 31 Oct 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for COP is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.