NYSE: CPF · Regional Banks
Central Pacific Financial (CPF) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 29 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Central Pacific Financial (CPF) at $40.77 a share. The stock last closed at $36.42, which puts the model's fair value 11.9% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Central Pacific Financial Corp.
Faircurve Insights · 29 Sep 2026
Central Pacific Financial Corporation functions as the parent company of Central Pacific Bank, delivering a comprehensive suite of commercial banking services and financial solutions.
On 29 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $40.77 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $41.11, a move of -0.8%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $34.21 to $49.71, built from the fair value since there is no live options data for the stock. This range held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the model graded the evidence as High.
The model compares Central Pacific Financial Corp. with Hanmi Financial Corporation (HAFC), Southside Bancshares, Inc. (SBSI), Capitol Federal Financial, Inc. (CFFN), Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA), Preferred Bank (PFBC), and Westamerica Bancorporation (WABC). Moves around the last 8 earnings reports, measured from the close before each report to the close after it, include +1.0% on 24 Jul 2026 and -7.6% on 30 Oct 2024. The median size, ignoring direction, was 3.4%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 29 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give CPF?
The calibrated range for CPF over 63 trading days is $34.21 to $49.71. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $37.42 to $44.14. In 88% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does CPF compare with similar companies?
The companies in regional banks closest to Central Pacific Financial in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRST TrustCo Bank Corp NY | $55.69 | $45.56 | -18.2% | Low evidence grade |
| HAFC Hanmi Financial Corporation | $31.67 | $38.68 | +22.1% | Undervalued |
| SBSI Southside Bancshares, Inc. | $30.73 | $35.65 | +16.0% | Undervalued |
| EGBN Eagle Bancorp, Inc. | $28.38 | $26.77 | -5.7% | Low evidence grade |
| CFFN Capitol Federal Financial, Inc. | $8.58 | $8.10 | -5.6% | Fairly valued |
| HFWA Heritage Financial Corporation | $28.14 | $20.41 | -27.5% | Overvalued |
| PFBC Preferred Bank | $106.48 | $140.79 | +32.2% | Undervalued |
| WABC Westamerica Bancorporation | $59.60 | $62.23 | +4.4% | Fairly valued |
When does CPF report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Central Pacific Financial's next earnings report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How CPF moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.4%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2026 | +1.0% |
| 29 Apr 2026 | -3.8% |
| 28 Jan 2026 | +0.5% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | -3.9% |
| 25 Jul 2025 | -1.8% |
| 23 Apr 2025 | +9.3% |
| 29 Jan 2025 | +3.0% |
| 30 Oct 2024 | -7.6% |
Central Pacific Financial at a glance
Central Pacific Financial Corporation functions as the parent company of Central Pacific Bank, delivering a comprehensive suite of commercial banking services and financial solutions.
- Market value
- $962M
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Regional Banks
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -15.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- 0.43
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Central Pacific Financial on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for CPF was $41.11. As of 29 Sep 2026 it is $40.77, a change of -0.8%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Central Pacific Financial's valuation
Is Central Pacific Financial stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, CPF reads as Undervalued as of 29 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $40.77 a share against a last close of $36.42, a gap of +11.9%.
What is CPF's fair value?
$40.77 a share as of 29 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $37.42 to $44.14.
What price range does the model give CPF?
$34.21 to $49.71 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Central Pacific Financial report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CPF moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was +9.3% around the report of 23 Apr 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CPF is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.