NYSE: CRGY · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Crescent Energy (CRGY) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Crescent Energy (CRGY) at $14.46 a share. The stock last closed at $13.39, which puts the model's fair value 8.0% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Crescent Energy Company.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Crescent Energy Company operates as an energy enterprise, primarily focused on the exploration, development, and extraction of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs).
On 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $14.46 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved +1.2% since the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $14.29. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days is $12.06 to $17.53, built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium.
The company has an overall quality score of 53 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with California Resources Corp (CRC), Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR), Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY), Matador Resources Company (MTDR), and Talos Energy Inc. (TALO). Moves around the last 8 earnings reports, from the close before each report to the close after it, had a median size, ignoring direction, of 4.6%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give CRGY?
The calibrated range for CRGY over 63 trading days is $12.06 to $17.53. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $8.69 to $21.24. In 55% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does CRGY score on business quality?
Crescent Energy's overall quality score is 53 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 38 | 6.3%ROIC | 9.0% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 87 | 16.42xFCF / net income | 0.94x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 80 | 22.1%Revenue growth, trailing | 2.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 46 | 0.1%Net buybacks / market value | 1.4% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 10 | 3.48xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.16x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 25 | 16.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 11.1 pts |
How does CRGY compare with similar companies?
The companies in oil & gas exploration & production closest to Crescent Energy in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRC California Resources Corp | $52.43 | $50.21 | -4.2% | Fairly valued |
| CNX CNX Resources Corporation | $31.50 | $33.80 | +7.3% | Low evidence grade |
| CRK Comstock Resources, Inc. | $12.78 | $8.90 | -30.4% | Low evidence grade |
| MUR Murphy Oil Corporation | $37.66 | $36.92 | -2.0% | Fairly valued |
| MGY Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation | $24.07 | $26.15 | +8.6% | Fairly valued |
| MTDR Matador Resources Company | $53.50 | $74.39 | +39.0% | Undervalued |
| TALO Talos Energy Inc. | $16.78 | $25.14 | +49.8% | Undervalued |
| NOG Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. | $23.83 | $35.99 | +51.0% | Low evidence grade |
All oil & gas exploration & production stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does CRGY report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Crescent Energy's next earnings report is scheduled for 2 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 19.6% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How CRGY moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.6%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 3 Aug 2026 | -1.7% |
| 4 May 2026 | +3.4% |
| 25 Feb 2026 | +4.7% |
| 3 Nov 2025 | -4.5% |
| 4 Aug 2025 | +4.5% |
| 5 May 2025 | +11.1% |
| 26 Feb 2025 | -6.6% |
| 4 Nov 2024 | +5.6% |
Crescent Energy at a glance
Crescent Energy Company operates as an energy enterprise, primarily focused on the exploration, development, and extraction of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs).
- Market value
- $4.4B
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $4.6B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +35.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 6
- Beta to the US market
- 0.24
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Crescent Energy on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for CRGY was $14.29. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $14.46, a change of +1.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Crescent Energy's valuation
Is Crescent Energy stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, CRGY reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $14.46 a share against a last close of $13.39, a gap of +8.0%.
What is CRGY's fair value?
$14.46 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $8.69 to $21.24.
What price range does the model give CRGY?
$12.06 to $17.53 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Crescent Energy report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 2 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CRGY moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was +11.1% around the report of 5 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CRGY is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.