NASDAQ: CSCO · Communication Equipment
Cisco Systems (CSCO) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 28 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Cisco Systems (CSCO) at $128.80 a share. The stock last closed at $112.20, which puts the model's fair value 14.8% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Cisco Systems, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 28 Sep 2026
Cisco Systems, Inc. is a leading global technology company focused on designing, producing, and marketing Internet Protocol (IP)-based networking equipment, software, and associated products within the communications and information technology industries.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $128.80 a share for Cisco Systems, Inc. on 28 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved +0.3% since the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $128.37. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $103.94 to $128.25; ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the evidence grade is Medium.
The company's overall quality score is 55 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares Cisco Systems, Inc. with Motorola Solutions, Inc., Zebra Technologies Corporation, Viavi Solutions Inc., Belden Inc., and Digi International Inc. The median size of the stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports, ignoring direction, was 4.9%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 28 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give CSCO?
The calibrated range for CSCO over 63 trading days is $103.94 to $128.25. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that CSCO's own options imply (30% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $101.86 to $159.80. In 75% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does CSCO score on business quality?
Cisco Systems's overall quality score is 55 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 42 | 17.5%ROIC | 30.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 44 | 1.02xFCF / net income | 1.21x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 72 | 11.8%Revenue growth, trailing | 18.8% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 89 | 1.6%Net buybacks / market value | 1.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 42 | 1.11xNet debt / EBITDA | -0.17x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 66 | 1.5 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.0 pts |
How does CSCO compare with similar companies?
The companies in communication equipment closest to Cisco Systems in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSI Motorola Solutions, Inc. | $447.41 | $451.47 | +0.9% | Fairly valued |
| LITE Lumentum Holdings Inc. | $1,085.42 | $866.84 | -20.1% | Data under review |
| CIEN Ciena Corporation | $391.34 | $385.68 | -1.4% | Data under review |
| ZBRA Zebra Technologies Corporation | $375.86 | $422.73 | +12.5% | Fairly valued |
| VSAT Viasat, Inc. | $72.00 | $100.29 | +39.3% | Low evidence grade |
| VIAV Viavi Solutions Inc. | $47.10 | $39.07 | -17.0% | Overvalued |
| BDC Belden Inc. | $112.46 | $162.76 | +44.7% | Undervalued |
| DGII Digi International Inc. | $75.61 | $77.22 | +2.1% | Fairly valued |
All communication equipment stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does CSCO report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Cisco Systems's next earnings report is scheduled for 11 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 4.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. CSCO's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 8.6% over one month.
How CSCO moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.9%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 12 Aug 2026 | -5.8% |
| 13 May 2026 | +16.4% |
| 11 Feb 2026 | -13.1% |
| 12 Nov 2025 | +7.9% |
| 13 Aug 2025 | -2.9% |
| 14 May 2025 | +4.0% |
| 12 Feb 2025 | +2.3% |
| 13 Nov 2024 | -1.3% |
Cisco Systems at a glance
Cisco Systems, Inc. is a leading global technology company focused on designing, producing, and marketing Internet Protocol (IP)-based networking equipment, software, and associated products within the communications and information technology industries.
- Market value
- $420.6B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Communication Equipment
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $73.8B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +15.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 16
- Beta to the US market
- 1.18
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Cisco Systems on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for CSCO was $128.37. As of 28 Sep 2026 it is $128.80, a change of +0.3%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Cisco Systems's valuation
Is Cisco Systems stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, CSCO reads as Fairly valued as of 28 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $128.80 a share against a last close of $112.20, a gap of +14.8%.
What is CSCO's fair value?
$128.80 a share as of 28 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $101.86 to $159.80.
What price range does the model give CSCO?
$103.94 to $128.25 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Cisco Systems report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 11 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CSCO moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was +16.4% around the report of 13 May 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CSCO is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.