NYSE: DFIN · Application Software
Donnelley Financial Solutions (DFIN) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Donnelley Financial Solutions (DFIN) at $57.31 a share. The stock last closed at $46.56, which puts the model's fair value 23.1% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Donnelley Financial Solutions, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Donnelley Financial Solutions, Inc. (DFIN) is an international firm specializing in risk management and regulatory compliance solutions.
Faircurve's model on 26 Sep 2026 found a fair value of $57.31 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $56.04, and the fair value moved +2.3%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $48.08 to $69.88, built from the fair value. This range held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the model graded the evidence as Medium.
The overall quality score against comparable companies is 72 out of 100, with a profitability score of 98 and an earnings quality score of 100. The model compares Donnelley Financial Solutions, Inc. with Sprinklr, Inc. (CXM), LegalZoom.com, Inc. (LZ), BlackLine, Inc. (BL), DoubleVerify Holdings, Inc. (DV), PDF Solutions, Inc. (PDFS), and Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (DBD). Around the last 8 earnings reports, the median size of the move was 17.6%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give DFIN?
The calibrated range for DFIN over 63 trading days is $48.08 to $69.88. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 15 to 30% above price, the calibrated range has held the price 50% of the time over 63 trading days, and 47% ended below it; the typical move was +4.1%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $38.62 to $82.40. In 63% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does DFIN score on business quality?
Donnelley Financial Solutions's overall quality score is 72 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 98 | 19.0%ROIC | -7.9% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 100 | 4.33xFCF / net income | |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 28 | -1.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 13.9% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 67 | 14.3%Net buybacks / market value | 6.1% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 54 | 1.44xNet debt / EBITDA | |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 50 | 3.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 4.3 pts |
How does DFIN compare with similar companies?
The companies in application software closest to Donnelley Financial Solutions in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CXM Sprinklr, Inc. | $5.20 | $6.06 | +16.5% | Undervalued |
| LZ LegalZoom.com, Inc. | $5.60 | $6.29 | +12.3% | Fairly valued |
| BL BlackLine, Inc. | $27.41 | $34.44 | +25.6% | Undervalued |
| BLKB Blackbaud, Inc. | $41.76 | $62.41 | +49.4% | Low evidence grade |
| DV DoubleVerify Holdings, Inc. | $13.49 | $14.73 | +9.2% | Fairly valued |
| PDFS PDF Solutions, Inc. | $55.50 | $46.47 | -16.3% | Overvalued |
| DBD Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated | $63.77 | $74.40 | +16.7% | Undervalued |
| SDGR Schrödinger, Inc. | $30.31 | $28.34 | -6.5% | Low evidence grade |
When does DFIN report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Donnelley Financial Solutions's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 16.5% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How DFIN moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 17.6%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | -8.0% |
| 5 May 2026 | -15.1% |
| 17 Feb 2026 | +26.2% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | -11.7% |
| 31 Jul 2025 | -20.0% |
| 30 Apr 2025 | +44.6% |
| 18 Feb 2025 | -26.4% |
| 31 Oct 2024 | -11.6% |
Donnelley Financial Solutions at a glance
Donnelley Financial Solutions, Inc. (DFIN) is an international firm specializing in risk management and regulatory compliance solutions.
- Market value
- $1.2B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Application Software
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $802M
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +1.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 2
- Beta to the US market
- 0.64
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Donnelley Financial Solutions on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for DFIN was $56.04. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $57.31, a change of +2.3%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Donnelley Financial Solutions's valuation
Is Donnelley Financial Solutions stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, DFIN reads as Undervalued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $57.31 a share against a last close of $46.56, a gap of +23.1%.
What is DFIN's fair value?
$57.31 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $38.62 to $82.40.
What price range does the model give DFIN?
$48.08 to $69.88 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Donnelley Financial Solutions report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has DFIN moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 17.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was +44.6% around the report of 30 Apr 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for DFIN is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.