NYSE: DVA · Medical Care Facilities
DaVita (DVA) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values DaVita (DVA) at $230.01 a share. The stock last closed at $178.69, which puts the model's fair value 28.7% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. DaVita Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
DaVita Inc. specializes in delivering essential kidney dialysis treatments and comprehensive renal care to individuals grappling with chronic kidney failure.
On 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $230.01 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $212.77, so the fair value moved +8.1%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $191.90 to $278.84, which held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the evidence grade is Medium.
The overall quality score is 70 out of 100, which is a score against comparable companies. These include Encompass Health Corporation (EHC), Universal Health Services, Inc. (UHS), The Ensign Group, Inc. (ENSG), Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS), Tenet Healthcare Corporation (THC), Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (CON), and National HealthCare Corporation (NHC). Moves around the last 8 earnings reports had a median size, ignoring direction, of 9.3%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give DVA?
The calibrated range for DVA over 63 trading days is $191.90 to $278.84. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 15 to 30% above price, the calibrated range has held the price 50% of the time over 63 trading days, and 48% ended below it; the typical move was +3.7%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $156.40 to $319.09. In 70% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does DVA score on business quality?
DaVita's overall quality score is 70 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 75 | 15.0%ROIC | 9.9% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 100 | 1.90xFCF / net income | 0.82x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 50 | 6.5%Revenue growth, trailing | 10.7% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 77 | 13.6%Net buybacks / market value | 5.4% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 27 | 3.66xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.64x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 72 | 1.0 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.0 pts |
How does DVA compare with similar companies?
The companies in medical care facilities closest to DaVita in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EHC Encompass Health Corporation | $119.80 | $118.48 | -1.1% | Fairly valued |
| UHS Universal Health Services, Inc. | $175.72 | $251.05 | +42.9% | Undervalued |
| ENSG The Ensign Group, Inc. | $171.78 | $150.47 | -12.4% | Fairly valued |
| CHE Chemed Corporation | $507.50 | $507.32 | 0.0% | Low evidence grade |
| HIMS Hims & Hers Health, Inc. | $29.00 | $28.91 | -0.3% | Fairly valued |
| THC Tenet Healthcare Corporation | $258.62 | $316.46 | +22.4% | Undervalued |
| CON Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. | $35.65 | $38.64 | +8.4% | Fairly valued |
| NHC National HealthCare Corporation | $227.66 | $264.86 | +16.3% | Undervalued |
All medical care facilities stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does DVA report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
DaVita's next earnings report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 7.7% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How DVA moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 9.3%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2026 | -19.3% |
| 5 May 2026 | +25.8% |
| 2 Feb 2026 | +23.2% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | -8.4% |
| 5 Aug 2025 | -8.4% |
| 12 May 2025 | +0.2% |
| 13 Feb 2025 | -8.5% |
| 29 Oct 2024 | -10.1% |
DaVita at a glance
DaVita Inc. specializes in delivering essential kidney dialysis treatments and comprehensive renal care to individuals grappling with chronic kidney failure.
- Market value
- $11.5B
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Medical Care Facilities
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $14.4B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +3.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- -0.15
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices DaVita on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for DVA was $212.77. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $230.01, a change of +8.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about DaVita's valuation
Is DaVita stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, DVA reads as Undervalued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $230.01 a share against a last close of $178.69, a gap of +28.7%.
What is DVA's fair value?
$230.01 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $156.40 to $319.09.
What price range does the model give DVA?
$191.90 to $278.84 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does DaVita report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has DVA moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 9.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was +25.8% around the report of 5 May 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for DVA is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.