NYSE: ELV · Healthcare Plans
Elevance Health (ELV) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Elevance Health (ELV) at $406.78 a share. The stock last closed at $386.43, which puts the model's fair value 5.3% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Elevance Health Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Elevance Health Inc. operates as a major health benefits organization, committing to guiding consumers, families, and communities across their entire health and wellness path.
On 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $406.78 a share, which is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -2.2% from the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which was $415.81. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days is $341.28 to $495.99, built from the fair value. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the evidence grade is Medium.
The overall quality score for Elevance Health Inc. is 53 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Cigna Corporation, CVS Health Corp., Humana Inc., Centene Corp., UnitedHealth Group Incorporated, Molina Healthcare, Inc., and Progyny, Inc. The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports ranged from -19.6% to +7.5%, with a median size of 6.5%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give ELV?
The calibrated range for ELV over 63 trading days is $341.28 to $495.99. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $329.35 to $491.66. In 57% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does ELV score on business quality?
Elevance Health's overall quality score is 53 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 41 | 9.1%ROIC | 10.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 66 | 1.27xFCF / net income | 0.82x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 52 | 12.6%Revenue growth, trailing | 11.7% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 53 | 3.2%Net buybacks / market value | 1.6% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 36 | 2.60xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.20x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 85 | 0.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.0 pts |
How does ELV compare with similar companies?
The companies in healthcare plans closest to Elevance Health in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CI Cigna Corporation | $270.53 | $356.02 | +31.6% | Undervalued |
| CVS CVS Health Corp. | $86.46 | $91.86 | +6.2% | Fairly valued |
| HUM Humana Inc. | $388.36 | $345.39 | -11.1% | Fairly valued |
| CNC Centene Corp. | $62.99 | $73.22 | +16.2% | Undervalued |
| UNH UnitedHealth Group Incorporated | $371.90 | $375.26 | +0.9% | Fairly valued |
| MOH Molina Healthcare, Inc. | $189.54 | $194.41 | +2.6% | Fairly valued |
| PGNY Progyny, Inc. | $25.23 | $29.21 | +15.8% | Undervalued |
When does ELV report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Elevance Health's next earnings report is scheduled for 21 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 5.5% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How ELV moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.5%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 15 Jul 2026 | -12.6% |
| 22 Apr 2026 | +5.5% |
| 28 Jan 2026 | +7.5% |
| 21 Oct 2025 | -2.5% |
| 17 Jul 2025 | -19.6% |
| 22 Apr 2025 | +5.0% |
| 23 Jan 2025 | +2.6% |
| 17 Oct 2024 | -13.3% |
Elevance Health at a glance
Operating as a major health benefits organization, Elevance Health Inc. commits to guiding consumers, families, and communities across their entire health and wellness path.
- Market value
- $85.9B
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Healthcare Plans
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $200.8B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -0.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 14
- Beta to the US market
- 0.37
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Elevance Health on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for ELV was $415.81. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $406.78, a change of -2.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Elevance Health's valuation
Is Elevance Health stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, ELV reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $406.78 a share against a last close of $386.43, a gap of +5.3%.
What is ELV's fair value?
$406.78 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $329.35 to $491.66.
What price range does the model give ELV?
$341.28 to $495.99 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Elevance Health report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 21 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ELV moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was -19.6% around the report of 17 Jul 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ELV is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.