NYSE: EOG · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
EOG Resources (EOG) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values EOG Resources (EOG) at $175.45 a share. The stock last closed at $141.38, which puts the model's fair value 24.1% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. EOG Resources, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
EOG Resources, Inc. explores for, develops, produces, and markets crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas in the United States, the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago, and internationally.
Faircurve's model on 26 Sep 2026 gave a fair value of $175.45 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 19 Sep 2026, gave $181.43, and the fair value moved -3.3%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $130.00 to $163.73, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade for this valuation was High.
The overall quality score for EOG Resources, Inc. was 77 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY), Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG), Devon Energy Corporation (DVN), ConocoPhillips (COP), EQT Corporation (EQT), Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL), Expand Energy Corporation (EXE), and Permian Resources Corporation (PR). Around the last 8 earnings reports, the median size of moves, ignoring direction, was 2.7%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give EOG?
The calibrated range for EOG over 63 trading days is $130.00 to $163.73. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that EOG's own options imply (33% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $145.07 to $209.65. In 84% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does EOG score on business quality?
EOG Resources's overall quality score is 77 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 23.3%ROIC | 6.9% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 63 | 0.98xFCF / net income | 1.26x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 81 | -3.5%Revenue growth, trailing | -5.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 56 | 3.8%Net buybacks / market value | 2.6% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 100 | 0.24xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.01x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 25 | 2.5 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.8 pts |
How does EOG compare with similar companies?
The companies in oil & gas exploration & production closest to EOG Resources in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OXY Occidental Petroleum Corporation | $58.08 | $64.13 | +10.4% | Fairly valued |
| FANG Diamondback Energy, Inc. | $184.71 | $206.87 | +12.0% | Fairly valued |
| DVN Devon Energy Corporation | $47.65 | $40.94 | -14.1% | Fairly valued |
| COP ConocoPhillips | $126.75 | $156.65 | +23.6% | Undervalued |
| EQT EQT Corporation | $50.17 | $48.02 | -4.3% | Fairly valued |
| TPL Texas Pacific Land Corporation | $340.19 | $273.44 | -19.6% | Overvalued |
| EXE Expand Energy Corporation | $85.52 | $111.04 | +29.8% | Undervalued |
| PR Permian Resources Corporation | $22.12 | $30.80 | +39.2% | Undervalued |
All oil & gas exploration & production stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does EOG report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
EOG Resources's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 4.8% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. EOG's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 9.4% over one month.
How EOG moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2026 | -7.9% |
| 5 May 2026 | -4.9% |
| 24 Feb 2026 | +0.2% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | +0.2% |
| 7 Aug 2025 | -0.3% |
| 1 May 2025 | +0.5% |
| 28 Feb 2025 | -7.7% |
| 8 Nov 2024 | +5.3% |
EOG Resources at a glance
EOG Resources, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, explores for, develops, produces, and markets crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas in producing basins in the United States, the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago, and internationally.
- Market value
- $74.8B
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $26.6B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +25.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 15
- Beta to the US market
- -0.37
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices EOG Resources on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for EOG was $181.43. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $175.45, a change of -3.3%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about EOG Resources's valuation
Is EOG Resources stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, EOG reads as Undervalued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $175.45 a share against a last close of $141.38, a gap of +24.1%.
What is EOG's fair value?
$175.45 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $145.07 to $209.65.
What price range does the model give EOG?
$130.00 to $163.73 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does EOG Resources report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has EOG moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was -7.9% around the report of 4 Aug 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for EOG is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.