NASDAQ: ERIE · Property & Casualty Insurance
Erie Indemnity (ERIE) fair value and price range
As of 1 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Erie Indemnity (ERIE) at $147.23 a share. The stock last closed at $221.09, which puts the model's fair value 33.4% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Erie Indemnity Company.
Faircurve Insights · 1 Oct 2026
Erie Indemnity Company operates as a managing attorney-in-fact for the subscribers at the Erie Insurance Exchange in the United States. It provides Financial Services in Property & Casualty Insurance.
Faircurve's model valued Erie Indemnity Company at $147.23 a share on 1 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -2.1% from the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $150.41. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $123.52 to $179.52, built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low.
The company is compared with American Financial Group, Inc., Old Republic International Corporation, Assurant, Inc., Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. and Selective Insurance Group, Inc. The stock moved -2.6% on 30 Jul 2026, -6.6% on 23 Apr 2026, -5.9% on 23 Feb 2026, -3.1% on 30 Oct 2025, -0.4% on 7 Aug 2025, -12.1% on 24 Apr 2025, +7.1% on 27 Feb 2025, and -7.8% on 31 Oct 2024.
Written from the figures on this page for the 1 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give ERIE?
The calibrated range for ERIE over 63 trading days is $123.52 to $179.52. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is above this range. For names with fair value 15%+ below price, the calibrated range has held the price 40% of the time over 63 trading days, and 58% ended above it; the typical move was −0.1%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $114.50 to $188.97. In 9% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does ERIE compare with similar companies?
The companies in property & casualty insurance closest to Erie Indemnity in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFG American Financial Group, Inc. | $139.10 | $146.99 | +5.7% | Fairly valued |
| ORI Old Republic International Corporation | $38.06 | $41.56 | +9.2% | Fairly valued |
| AIZ Assurant, Inc. | $267.32 | $202.11 | -24.4% | Overvalued |
| THG The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. | $219.43 | $200.38 | -8.7% | Low evidence grade |
| KNSL Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | $329.72 | $280.07 | -15.1% | Overvalued |
| MCY Mercury General Corporation | $102.27 | $154.87 | +51.4% | Low evidence grade |
| SIGI Selective Insurance Group, Inc. | $85.59 | $85.01 | -0.7% | Fairly valued |
| RLI RLI Corp. | $55.94 | $45.60 | -18.5% | Low evidence grade |
All property & casualty insurance stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does ERIE report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Erie Indemnity's next earnings report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 10.4% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How ERIE moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.2%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | -2.6% |
| 23 Apr 2026 | -6.6% |
| 23 Feb 2026 | -5.9% |
| 30 Oct 2025 | -3.1% |
| 7 Aug 2025 | -0.4% |
| 24 Apr 2025 | -12.1% |
| 27 Feb 2025 | +7.1% |
| 31 Oct 2024 | -7.8% |
Erie Indemnity at a glance
Erie Indemnity Company operates as a managing attorney-in-fact for the subscribers at the Erie Insurance Exchange in the United States.
- Market value
- $10.3B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Property & Casualty Insurance
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +2.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 1
- Beta to the US market
- -0.18
- First valued by Faircurve
- 4 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Erie Indemnity on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for ERIE was $150.41. As of 1 Oct 2026 it is $147.23, a change of -2.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Erie Indemnity's valuation
Is Erie Indemnity stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts ERIE's fair value at $147.23 a share against a last close of $221.09, as of 1 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is ERIE's fair value?
$147.23 a share as of 1 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $114.50 to $188.97.
What price range does the model give ERIE?
$123.52 to $179.52 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Erie Indemnity report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ERIE moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was -12.1% around the report of 24 Apr 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ERIE is low. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.