Eversource Energy (ES) — Fair Value Analysis
Base-case fair value (P50): $89.28 · Current price: $74.44 · Verdict: Undervalued
The Verdict on ES
Eversource Energy (ES) is currently deemed Fairly Valued based on our proprietary Monte Carlo simulations. With the stock trading at $74.44, our median fair value (P50) stands at $89.28. This suggests a potential +19.9% from the current share price, indicating that while there is room for appreciation to reach the calculated fair value, the market's current assessment is largely aligned with our comprehensive modeling of future scenarios. Investors should note this implies a balanced risk/reward profile at $74.44 for ES, a prominent player in the Utilities sector.
How ES stacks up against Utilities
ES holds an average quality tier when assessed for operational and financial health relative to its Utilities sector peers. This average quality tier supports the Fairly Valued verdict, as it reflects a company with stable, but not exceptional, underlying fundamentals. The $89.28 fair value of $89.28 for ES, calculated through thousands of forward-looking simulations, takes into account this average standing within the typically stable Utilities sector, contrasting it directly with the current market price of $74.44. The resulting +19.9% should be viewed in the context of a utility company operating with average sector-specific strengths.
What this means for investors
For investors considering Eversource Energy, the Fairly Valued assessment, coupled with a potential +19.9% towards the $89.28 fair value from its $74.44, suggests a low probability of significant mispricing today. While a bull case scenario could see the stock trading above its $89.28, a downside scenario is also possible depending on various market inputs. FairCurve models suggest that ES’s current valuation is largely rational. To gain deeper insight into the full probability distribution, including precise bear (P10) and bull (P90) target prices, and to track ES's fair value as new fundamentals are released, sign up for a free FairCurve account.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ES overvalued or undervalued right now?
Based on our Monte Carlo simulations, Eversource Energy (ES) is currently considered Fairly Valued, with a current price of $74.44 compared to its median fair value (P50) of $89.28.
What is the bear case and bull case for ES?
The full Monte Carlo distribution, including specific bear (P10) and bull (P90) target prices for ES, as well as the probability of upside, is available exclusively to FairCurve account holders. We do not provide specific dollar values for these scenarios publicly.
How does FairCurve calculate ES's fair value?
FairCurve calculates ES's fair value using sophisticated Monte Carlo simulations, modeling thousands of potential forward scenarios to derive a probabilistic fair value range and median (P50) target.
How can I track ES's fair value as it changes?
You can add ES to a free FairCurve watchlist to receive daily updates on its fair value and be instantly notified of re-valuations whenever new earnings or significant fundamental data are released.