Extra Space Storage Inc. (EXR) — Fair Value Analysis

Base-case fair value (P50): $134.80 · Current price: $147.90 · Verdict: Fairly Valued

The Verdict on EXR

Extra Space Storage (EXR), a Real Estate sector constituent, appears Deeply Overvalued based on our latest Monte Carlo simulations. The current trading price of $147.90 significantly exceeds the median fair value (P50) calculated at $134.80, indicating a projected -8.9% downside from current levels. This substantial gap suggests investors are currently paying a premium not fully supported by the underlying valuation models and future scenario analyses.

How EXR stacks up against Real Estate

Our Monte Carlo simulations for EXR project a median fair value of $134.80, placing it considerably below its current market price of $147.90. While the quality tier for EXR is currently unrated, this valuation disparity is stark. Compared to its sector, EXR's $147.90 suggests a notable overextension relative to the fair value consensus derived from thousands of forward-looking financial scenarios. The -8.9% difference highlights the significant correction implied by our models, even without a specific quality rating to contextualize its operational or financial health against sector peers.

What this means for investors

For investors considering EXR, the current market price of $147.90 presents a challenging entry point given our Deeply Overvalued verdict. The median fair value of $134.80 points to a potential -8.9% adjustment, suggesting that current valuations may be difficult to sustain. While we don't disclose specific bear or bull case values publicly, the overall distribution suggests a clear downside bias at current levels. Investors can leverage FairCurve to see the full bear/bull distribution and track EXR's fair value as new fundamentals are released.