NYSE: FAF · Specialty Insurance
First American Financial (FAF) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values First American Financial (FAF) at $62.41 a share. The stock last closed at $68.20, which puts the model's fair value 8.5% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. First American Financial Corporation.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $63.25 to $62.41 (-1.3%). The model does not yet explain moves on this valuation method.
What the model makes of itThe price of $68.20 is 8.5% above it: Fairly valued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 10 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 10% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give FAF?
The calibrated range for FAF over 63 trading days is $61.24 to $77.84. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that FAF's own options imply (36% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $55.26 to $69.85. In 44% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
First American Financial Corporation (FAF) delivers financial services primarily through its diverse subsidiaries. Its operations fall into two main divisions: Title Insurance and Services, and Specialty Insurance.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $62.41 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $63.25, so the fair value moved -1.3%. The model does not yet explain moves on this valuation method. The calibrated range over 63 trading days runs from $60.77 to $77.23. It is built around the price from the volatility implied by the stock's own options, and calibrated weekly against realised prices, using 6,661 past valuations. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is High. For banks, insurers and mortgage REITs, the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
No quality scores for First American are available for this note, so its quality ranking against peers cannot be reported here. The model compares the company with Employers Holdings, Inc. (EIG), which has its own fair value on the site. Seven other comparable companies have no verdict on this date: Enact Holdings Inc. (ACT), Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT), MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG), Radian Group Inc. (RDN), Fidelity National Financial, Inc. (FNF), NMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH) and Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does FAF report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
First American Financial's next earnings report is scheduled for 10 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
On 5 Nov 2026, FAF's 30 day implied volatility worked out to a move of about 10.4% over one month, in either direction. That is a size, not a direction.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across FAF's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.3%.
How does FAF compare with similar companies?
The companies in specialty insurance closest to First American Financial in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACT Enact Holdings Inc. | $47.77 | $50.47 | +5.7% | Low evidence grade |
| ESNT Essent Group Ltd. | $68.60 | $82.42 | +20.1% | Low evidence grade |
| MTG MGIC Investment Corporation | $29.35 | $35.38 | +20.5% | Low evidence grade |
| RDN Radian Group Inc. | $37.27 | $47.84 | +28.4% | Low evidence grade |
| FNF Fidelity National Financial, Inc. | $42.89 | $54.85 | +27.9% | Low evidence grade |
| NMIH NMI Holdings, Inc. | $44.27 | $55.61 | +25.6% | Low evidence grade |
| AGO Assured Guaranty Ltd. | $71.76 | $66.24 | -7.7% | Low evidence grade |
| EIG Employers Holdings, Inc. | $47.13 | $22.85 | -51.5% | Overvalued |
First American Financial at a glance
First American Financial Corporation (FAF) delivers financial services primarily through its diverse subsidiaries. The company's operations are divided into two main divisions: Title Insurance and Services, and Specialty Insurance.
- Market value
- $6.5B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Specialty Insurance
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +8.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- 0.22
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. FAF was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices First American Financial on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for FAF was $63.25. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $62.41, a change of -1.3%. The model does not yet explain moves on this valuation method. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about First American Financial's valuation
Is First American Financial stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, FAF reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $62.41 a share against a last close of $68.20, a gap of -8.5%.
What is FAF's fair value?
$62.41 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $55.26 to $69.85.
What price range does the model give FAF?
$61.24 to $77.84 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does First American Financial report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 10 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has FAF moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was +4.0% around the report of 22 Oct 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for FAF is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on FAF
The model holds no idea open on FAF today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on FAF with their outcomes. A free account is enough.