NYSE: FCF · Regional Banks
First Commonwealth Financial (FCF) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 28 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values First Commonwealth Financial (FCF) at $20.45 a share. The stock last closed at $20.56, which puts the model's fair value 0.5% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. First Commonwealth Financial Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 28 Sep 2026
First Commonwealth Financial Corporation is a financial holding company providing consumer and commercial banking products and services in the United States.
On 28 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $20.45 a share, which is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -0.5% from the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $20.55. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $17.16 to $24.94, built from the fair value, and held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is High.
The business scores against comparable companies including The Bancorp, Inc. (TBBK) and OFG Bancorp (OFG). The stock moved +4.4% around its 28 Jul 2026 earnings report and -1.4% around its 28 Apr 2026 report. The median size of moves around the last 8 earnings reports, ignoring direction, was 2.5%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 28 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give FCF?
The calibrated range for FCF over 63 trading days is $17.16 to $24.94. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $17.58 to $23.52. In 45% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does FCF compare with similar companies?
The companies in regional banks closest to First Commonwealth Financial in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBBK The Bancorp, Inc. | $48.81 | $63.01 | +29.1% | Undervalued |
| OFG OFG Bancorp | $51.29 | $65.45 | +27.6% | Undervalued |
| NWBI Northwest Bancshares, Inc. | $15.19 | $14.45 | -4.9% | Fairly valued |
| CHCO City Holding Company | $142.82 | $113.26 | -20.7% | Overvalued |
| WAFD WaFd, Inc. | $30.80 | $39.11 | +27.0% | Undervalued |
| BANR Banner Corporation | $67.88 | $67.09 | -1.2% | Fairly valued |
| BBT Beacon Financial Corp. | $28.34 | $27.88 | -1.6% | Fairly valued |
| MBIN Merchants Bancorp | $49.95 | $78.77 | +57.7% | Undervalued |
When does FCF report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
First Commonwealth Financial's next earnings report is scheduled for 27 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How FCF moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.5%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 28 Jul 2026 | +4.4% |
| 28 Apr 2026 | -1.4% |
| 27 Jan 2026 | +0.4% |
| 28 Oct 2025 | -5.0% |
| 29 Jul 2025 | +0.2% |
| 29 Apr 2025 | +7.1% |
| 28 Jan 2025 | -3.6% |
| 29 Oct 2024 | -1.2% |
First Commonwealth Financial at a glance
First Commonwealth Financial Corporation, a financial holding company, provides various consumer and commercial banking products and services in the United States.
- Market value
- $2.1B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Regional Banks
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -23.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- 0.32
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices First Commonwealth Financial on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for FCF was $20.55. As of 28 Sep 2026 it is $20.45, a change of -0.5%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about First Commonwealth Financial's valuation
Is First Commonwealth Financial stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, FCF reads as Fairly valued as of 28 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $20.45 a share against a last close of $20.56, a gap of -0.5%.
What is FCF's fair value?
$20.45 a share as of 28 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $17.58 to $23.52.
What price range does the model give FCF?
$17.16 to $24.94 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does First Commonwealth Financial report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 27 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has FCF moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was +7.1% around the report of 29 Apr 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for FCF is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.