NASDAQ: FFBC · Regional Banks
First Financial Bancorp. (FFBC) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values First Financial Bancorp. (FFBC) at $27.65 a share. The stock last closed at $31.87, which puts the model's fair value 13.2% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. First Financial Bancorp.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
First Financial Bancorp. operates as the bank holding company for First Financial Bank. It provides commercial banking and banking-related services to individuals and businesses in Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, and Illinois.
On 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $27.65 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 26 Sep 2026, gave $27.78, so the fair value moved -0.5%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $23.07 to $33.52, built from the fair value. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, over 4,809 past valuations. The evidence grade is High.
The model compares it with Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC), Park National Corporation (PRK), First Interstate BancSystem, Inc. (FIBK), CVB Financial Corp. (CVBF), Community Bank System, Inc. (CBU), BankUnited, Inc. (BKU), and BancFirst Corporation (BANF). Around its last 8 earnings reports, the stock moved -4.3% on 21 Jul 2026, +5.3% on 23 Apr 2026, +5.5% on 28 Jan 2026, -1.1% on 23 Oct 2025, +2.2% on 24 Jul 2025, +1.7% on 24 Apr 2025, -0.8% on 23 Jan 2025, and -4.3% on 24 Oct 2024.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give FFBC?
The calibrated range for FFBC over 63 trading days is $23.07 to $33.52. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $21.46 to $34.96. In 31% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does FFBC compare with similar companies?
The companies in regional banks closest to First Financial Bancorp. in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFNC Simmons First National Corporation | $22.90 | $20.05 | -12.4% | Overvalued |
| PRK Park National Corporation | $183.15 | $134.34 | -26.7% | Overvalued |
| FIBK First Interstate BancSystem, Inc. | $36.00 | $28.52 | -20.8% | Overvalued |
| CVBF CVB Financial Corp. | $22.28 | $15.07 | -32.4% | Overvalued |
| CBU Community Bank System, Inc. | $60.69 | $40.43 | -33.4% | Overvalued |
| SBCF Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida | $32.68 | $20.72 | -36.6% | Low evidence grade |
| BKU BankUnited, Inc. | $43.38 | $46.13 | +6.3% | Fairly valued |
| BANF BancFirst Corporation | $108.08 | $92.13 | -14.8% | Fairly valued |
When does FFBC report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
First Financial Bancorp.'s next earnings report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How FFBC moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.3%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 21 Jul 2026 | -4.3% |
| 23 Apr 2026 | +5.3% |
| 28 Jan 2026 | +5.5% |
| 23 Oct 2025 | -1.1% |
| 24 Jul 2025 | +2.2% |
| 24 Apr 2025 | +1.7% |
| 23 Jan 2025 | -0.8% |
| 24 Oct 2024 | -4.3% |
First Financial Bancorp. at a glance
First Financial Bancorp. operates as the bank holding company for First Financial Bank that provides commercial banking and banking-related services to individuals and businesses in Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, and Illinois.
- Market value
- $3.3B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Regional Banks
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -14.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- 0.61
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices First Financial Bancorp. on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for FFBC was $27.78. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $27.65, a change of -0.5%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about First Financial Bancorp.'s valuation
Is First Financial Bancorp. stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, FFBC reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $27.65 a share against a last close of $31.87, a gap of -13.2%.
What is FFBC's fair value?
$27.65 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $21.46 to $34.96.
What price range does the model give FFBC?
$23.07 to $33.52 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does First Financial Bancorp. report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has FFBC moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was +5.5% around the report of 28 Jan 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for FFBC is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.