NASDAQ: GILD · General Drug Manufacturers
Gilead Sciences (GILD) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Gilead Sciences (GILD) at $142.59 a share. The stock last closed at $144.74, which puts the model's fair value 1.5% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Gilead Sciences, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Gilead Sciences, Inc. is a global biopharmaceutical enterprise, with operations spanning the United States, Europe, and numerous international markets.
On 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $142.59 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved +1.3% since the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $140.76. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days was $133.42 to $166.88, which held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the evidence grade was Medium.
The overall quality score was 41 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares Gilead Sciences, Inc. with Pfizer Inc., Amgen Inc., Bristol-Myers Squibb Company, Merck & Co., Inc., AbbVie Inc., Johnson & Johnson, Biogen Inc., and Eli Lilly and Company. Moves around the last 8 earnings reports had a median size, ignoring direction, of 3.3%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give GILD?
The calibrated range for GILD over 63 trading days is $133.42 to $166.88. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that GILD's own options imply (32% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $93.26 to $208.56. In 45% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does GILD score on business quality?
Gilead Sciences's overall quality score is 41 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 5 | -4.3%ROIC | 13.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 100 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 45 | 2.4%Revenue growth, trailing | 5.5% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 77 | 0.8%Net buybacks / market value | 0.8% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 0 | 36.27xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.60x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 22 | 8.7 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 3.9 pts |
How does GILD compare with similar companies?
The companies in general drug manufacturers closest to Gilead Sciences in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PFE Pfizer Inc. | $27.80 | $31.76 | +14.2% | Fairly valued |
| AMGN Amgen Inc. | $403.04 | $448.86 | +11.4% | Fairly valued |
| BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb Company | $61.15 | $71.30 | +16.6% | Undervalued |
| MRK Merck & Co., Inc. | $144.30 | $125.73 | -12.9% | Fairly valued |
| ABBV AbbVie Inc. | $262.82 | $271.97 | +3.5% | Fairly valued |
| JNJ Johnson & Johnson | $256.03 | $217.11 | -15.2% | Overvalued |
| BIIB Biogen Inc. | $219.88 | $236.19 | +7.4% | Fairly valued |
| LLY Eli Lilly and Company | $1,142.85 | $947.76 | -17.1% | Overvalued |
All general drug manufacturer stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does GILD report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Gilead Sciences's next earnings report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 4.2% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. GILD's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 9.1% over one month.
How GILD moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.3%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2026 | +0.5% |
| 7 May 2026 | -3.6% |
| 10 Feb 2026 | +2.7% |
| 30 Oct 2025 | +1.1% |
| 7 Aug 2025 | +8.3% |
| 24 Apr 2025 | -3.0% |
| 11 Feb 2025 | +8.2% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | +8.5% |
Gilead Sciences at a glance
Gilead Sciences, Inc. is a global biopharmaceutical enterprise, with operations spanning the United States, Europe, and numerous international markets.
- Market value
- $187.1B
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- General Drug Manufacturers
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $32.2B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +4.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 16
- Beta to the US market
- 0.22
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Gilead Sciences on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for GILD was $140.76. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $142.59, a change of +1.3%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Gilead Sciences's valuation
Is Gilead Sciences stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, GILD reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $142.59 a share against a last close of $144.74, a gap of -1.5%.
What is GILD's fair value?
$142.59 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $93.26 to $208.56.
What price range does the model give GILD?
$133.42 to $166.88 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Gilead Sciences report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has GILD moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was +8.5% around the report of 6 Nov 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for GILD is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.