NASDAQ: GO · Grocery Stores
Grocery Outlet (GO) fair value and price range
As of 29 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Grocery Outlet (GO) at $9.92 a share. The stock last closed at $11.62, which puts the model's fair value 14.6% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.
Faircurve Insights · 29 Sep 2026
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. operates a network of retail stores across the United States, offering name-brand consumables and fresh products through independently operated locations.
Faircurve's model on 29 Sep 2026 found a fair value of $9.92 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved +2.2% from the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $9.71. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $8.32 to $12.10, built from the fair value, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown.
The company's overall quality score is 61 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Albertsons Companies, Inc. (ACI), Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (SFM), The Kroger Co. (KR), Universal Corporation (UVV), Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO), Edgewell Personal Care Company (EPC), and The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL). The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports ranged from +38.5% to -30.4%, with a median size of 10.8%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 29 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give GO?
The calibrated range for GO over 63 trading days is $8.32 to $12.10. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $4.63 to $16.33. In 44% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does GO score on business quality?
Grocery Outlet's overall quality score is 61 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 56 | 7.3%ROIC | 5.2% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 100 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 50 | 7.3%Revenue growth, trailing | 2.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 38 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.1% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 70 | -7.46xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.46x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 33 | 2.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 0.6 pts |
How does GO compare with similar companies?
The companies in grocery stores closest to Grocery Outlet in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACI Albertsons Companies, Inc. | $11.75 | $17.32 | +47.4% | Undervalued |
| SFM Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. | $64.47 | $72.09 | +11.8% | Fairly valued |
| KR The Kroger Co. | $59.03 | $75.98 | +28.7% | Undervalued |
| UVV Universal Corporation | $42.20 | $41.10 | -2.6% | Fairly valued |
| FLO Flowers Foods, Inc. | $5.57 | $5.75 | +3.2% | Fairly valued |
| EPC Edgewell Personal Care Company | $26.97 | $24.48 | -9.2% | Fairly valued |
| BRBR BellRing Brands, Inc. | $7.43 | $8.62 | +16.0% | Low evidence grade |
| SMPL The Simply Good Foods Company | $9.83 | $11.54 | +17.4% | Undervalued |
When does GO report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Grocery Outlet's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 19.9% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How GO moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 10.8%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 12 Aug 2026 | +9.9% |
| 13 May 2026 | -3.6% |
| 4 Mar 2026 | -28.5% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | -8.5% |
| 5 Aug 2025 | +38.5% |
| 6 May 2025 | -1.0% |
| 25 Feb 2025 | -30.4% |
| 5 Nov 2024 | +11.8% |
Grocery Outlet at a glance
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. operates a network of retail stores across the United States, offering name-brand consumables and fresh products through independently operated locations.
- Market value
- $1.1B
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Grocery Stores
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $4.9B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +0.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 9
- Beta to the US market
- 0.41
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Grocery Outlet on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for GO was $9.71. As of 29 Sep 2026 it is $9.92, a change of +2.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Grocery Outlet's valuation
Is Grocery Outlet stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts GO's fair value at $9.92 a share against a last close of $11.62, as of 29 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is GO's fair value?
$9.92 a share as of 29 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $4.63 to $16.33.
What price range does the model give GO?
$8.32 to $12.10 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Grocery Outlet report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has GO moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 10.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was +38.5% around the report of 5 Aug 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for GO is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.