NYSE: GPK · Packaging & Containers
Graphic Packaging (GPK) fair value and price range
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Graphic Packaging (GPK) at $11.08 a share. The stock last closed at $11.31, which puts the model's fair value 2.0% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Graphic Packaging Holding Company.
The report adds the live price, the price chart, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $11.43 to $11.08 (-3.1%). The peer group changed: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $11.31 is 2.0% above it. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What's nextNext report on 2 Feb 2027. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give GPK?
The calibrated range for GPK over 63 trading days is $8.98 to $13.23. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $4.21 to $19.47. In 59% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) provides extensive fiber-based packaging solutions for clients across the food, beverage, foodservice, and broader consumer product industries.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $11.08 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations, on 31 Oct 2026. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $11.43, so the fair value moved -3.1%. The model gives the reason in its own words: "The peer group changed: most of the move." The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $8.98 to $13.23, built from the fair value because there is no live options data for the stock. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, across 10,454 past valuations. The model grades the evidence as low, so no verdict is shown.
The model's overall quality score for the business is 33 out of 100, a composite of six quality factors scored against comparable companies. Balance sheet scores 18, with net debt to EBITDA at 5.27x against a peer median of 2.76x. Profitability scores 11, with ROIC at 5.2% against a peer median of 7.5%. Earnings quality scores 76, with FCF to net income at 0.97x against a peer median of 0.91x. The model compares the company with Greif, Inc. (GEF), Silgan Holdings Inc. (SLGN), Crown Holdings, Inc. (CCK), Avery Dennison Corporation (AVY), Ball Corporation (BALL) and Amcor plc (AMCR).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does GPK report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Graphic Packaging's next earnings report is scheduled for 2 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across GPK's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.1%.
How does GPK score on business quality?
Graphic Packaging's overall quality score is 33 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 11 | 5.2%ROIC | 7.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 76 | 0.97xFCF / net income | 0.91x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 38 | -2.2%Revenue growth, trailing | 1.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 33 | 2.9%Net buybacks / market value | 1.7% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 18 | 5.27xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.76x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 22 | 1.8 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.2 pts |
How does GPK compare with similar companies?
The companies in packaging & containers closest to Graphic Packaging in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEF Greif, Inc. | $81.25 | $76.59 | -5.7% | Fairly valued |
| SLGN Silgan Holdings Inc. | $41.51 | $40.64 | -2.1% | Fairly valued |
| SON Sonoco Products Company | $48.83 | $59.09 | +21.0% | Low evidence grade |
| OI O-I Glass, Inc. | $5.12 | $9.85 | +92.4% | Gap wider than 60% |
| CCK Crown Holdings, Inc. | $120.73 | $141.33 | +17.1% | Undervalued |
| AVY Avery Dennison Corporation | $185.38 | $183.97 | -0.8% | Fairly valued |
| BALL Ball Corporation | $63.21 | $62.92 | -0.5% | Fairly valued |
| AMCR Amcor plc | $46.96 | $43.40 | -7.6% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for GPK, the peer-implied price, is $14.74 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All packaging & containers stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Graphic Packaging at a glance
Graphic Packaging Holding Company, along with its subsidiaries, provides extensive fiber-based packaging solutions for clients across the food, beverage, foodservice, and broader consumer product industries.
- Market value
- $2.6B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Packaging & Containers
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $8.8B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +0.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 7
- Beta to the US market
- 0.46
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Graphic Packaging on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for GPK was $11.43. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $11.08, a change of -3.1%. The peer group changed: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Graphic Packaging's valuation
Is Graphic Packaging stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts GPK's fair value at $11.08 a share against a last close of $11.31, as of 31 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is GPK's fair value?
$11.08 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $4.21 to $19.47.
What price range does the model give GPK?
$8.98 to $13.23 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Graphic Packaging report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 2 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has GPK moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was +26.2% around the report of 3 Nov 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for GPK is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on GPK
The model holds no idea open on GPK today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on GPK with their outcomes. A free account is enough.