NYSE: GVA · Engineering & Construction
Granite Construction (GVA) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 1 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Granite Construction (GVA) at $136.74 a share. The stock last closed at $119.92, which puts the model's fair value 14.0% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Granite Construction Incorporated.
Faircurve Insights · 1 Oct 2026
Granite Construction Incorporated is a leading U.S. company that functions as both an infrastructure contractor and a producer of essential construction materials, with activities divided into Construction and Materials.
On 1 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $136.74 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $135.79, meaning the fair value moved +0.7%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $114.72 to $166.73, built from the fair value, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium.
The company's overall quality score is 63 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Argan, Inc., MYR Group Inc., Everus Construction Group, Inc., Primoris Services Corporation, Fluor Corporation, Exponent, Inc., and Dycom Industries, Inc. Moves around the last 8 earnings reports show a median size of 4.8%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 1 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give GVA?
The calibrated range for GVA over 63 trading days is $114.72 to $166.73. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $107.21 to $170.20. In 72% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does GVA score on business quality?
Granite Construction's overall quality score is 63 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 69 | 17.8%ROIC | 15.1% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 91 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 61 | 10.4%Revenue growth, trailing | 21.3% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 41 | 1.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.5% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 25 | 4.50xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.47x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 55 | 1.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.6 pts |
How does GVA compare with similar companies?
The companies in engineering & construction closest to Granite Construction in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGX Argan, Inc. | $383.83 | $343.50 | -10.5% | Fairly valued |
| MYRG MYR Group Inc. | $304.77 | $336.69 | +10.5% | Fairly valued |
| KBR KBR, Inc. | $34.24 | $36.85 | +7.6% | Low evidence grade |
| ECG Everus Construction Group, Inc. | $123.35 | $121.91 | -1.2% | Fairly valued |
| PRIM Primoris Services Corporation | $79.08 | $75.39 | -4.7% | Fairly valued |
| FLR Fluor Corporation | $49.90 | $58.68 | +17.6% | Undervalued |
| EXPO Exponent, Inc. | $67.30 | $58.37 | -13.3% | Overvalued |
| DY Dycom Industries, Inc. | $273.75 | $318.30 | +16.3% | Undervalued |
All engineering & construction stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does GVA report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Granite Construction's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 13.1% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How GVA moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.8%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | +2.6% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | +13.8% |
| 12 Feb 2026 | -1.7% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | -4.1% |
| 7 Aug 2025 | +13.6% |
| 1 May 2025 | +14.9% |
| 13 Feb 2025 | +0.2% |
| 31 Oct 2024 | +5.4% |
Granite Construction at a glance
Granite Construction Incorporated is a leading U.S. company that functions as both an infrastructure contractor and a producer of essential construction materials. Its activities are primarily divided into two key segments: Construction and Materials.
- Market value
- $5.0B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Engineering & Construction
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $5.8B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +22.0%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- 0.92
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Granite Construction on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the revenue analysts expect next year (forward EV/Sales), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for GVA was $135.79. As of 1 Oct 2026 it is $136.74, a change of +0.7%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Granite Construction's valuation
Is Granite Construction stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, GVA reads as Fairly valued as of 1 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $136.74 a share against a last close of $119.92, a gap of +14.0%.
What is GVA's fair value?
$136.74 a share as of 1 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $107.21 to $170.20.
What price range does the model give GVA?
$114.72 to $166.73 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Granite Construction report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has GVA moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was +14.9% around the report of 1 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for GVA is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.