NYSE: HCA · Medical Care Facilities
HCA Healthcare (HCA) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values HCA Healthcare (HCA) at $485.20 a share. The stock last closed at $426.69, which puts the model's fair value 13.7% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. HCA Healthcare, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
HCA Healthcare, Inc. delivers a comprehensive array of healthcare services throughout the United States. It operates through its subsidiaries.
Faircurve's model valued HCA Healthcare, Inc. on 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value was $485.20 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 19 Sep 2026, gave the same fair value. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $407.07 to $591.61, built from the fair value, since there is no live options data for the stock. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade was High.
The overall quality score for the business was 55 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Tenet Healthcare Corporation, Encompass Health Corporation, DaVita Inc., Universal Health Services, Inc., The Ensign Group, Inc., Hims & Hers Health, Inc., and Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. The moves around the last 8 earnings reports, measured from the close before each report to the close after it, had a median size, ignoring direction, of 3.7%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give HCA?
The calibrated range for HCA over 63 trading days is $407.07 to $591.61. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $376.49 to $604.37. In 64% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does HCA score on business quality?
HCA Healthcare's overall quality score is 55 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 88 | 21.5%ROIC | 11.0% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 43 | 0.88xFCF / net income | 1.13x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 35 | 7.1%Revenue growth, trailing | 10.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 50 | 9.2%Net buybacks / market value | 2.8% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 27 | 3.02xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.13x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 50 | 1.1 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 0.9 pts |
How does HCA compare with similar companies?
The companies in medical care facilities closest to HCA Healthcare in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| THC Tenet Healthcare Corporation | $258.62 | $293.18 | +13.4% | Fairly valued |
| EHC Encompass Health Corporation | $119.80 | $119.78 | 0.0% | Fairly valued |
| DVA DaVita Inc. | $178.69 | $230.01 | +28.7% | Undervalued |
| UHS Universal Health Services, Inc. | $175.72 | $255.94 | +45.7% | Undervalued |
| ENSG The Ensign Group, Inc. | $171.78 | $148.78 | -13.4% | Fairly valued |
| CHE Chemed Corporation | $507.50 | $507.32 | 0.0% | Low evidence grade |
| HIMS Hims & Hers Health, Inc. | $29.00 | $29.24 | +0.8% | Fairly valued |
| CON Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. | $35.65 | $38.11 | +6.9% | Fairly valued |
All medical care facilities stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does HCA report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
HCA Healthcare's next earnings report is scheduled for 23 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 5.1% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How HCA moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2026 | +3.5% |
| 24 Apr 2026 | -6.0% |
| 27 Jan 2026 | +4.0% |
| 24 Oct 2025 | +6.3% |
| 25 Jul 2025 | -0.3% |
| 25 Apr 2025 | -2.8% |
| 24 Jan 2025 | +2.0% |
| 25 Oct 2024 | -10.6% |
HCA Healthcare at a glance
HCA Healthcare, Inc., operating through its subsidiaries, delivers a comprehensive array of healthcare services throughout the United States.
- Market value
- $94.3B
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Medical Care Facilities
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $80.8B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +3.9%
- Analysts with estimates
- 15
- Beta to the US market
- 0.14
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices HCA Healthcare on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for HCA was $485.35. It is unchanged at $485.20 as of 26 Sep 2026. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about HCA Healthcare's valuation
Is HCA Healthcare stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, HCA reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $485.20 a share against a last close of $426.69, a gap of +13.7%.
What is HCA's fair value?
$485.20 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $376.49 to $604.37.
What price range does the model give HCA?
$407.07 to $591.61 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does HCA Healthcare report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 23 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has HCA moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was -10.6% around the report of 25 Oct 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for HCA is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.