NYSE: HII · Aerospace & Defense
Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) at $294.36 a share. The stock last closed at $268.54, which puts the model's fair value 9.6% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII) is an American enterprise specializing in the comprehensive lifecycle management of military vessels, encompassing their design, construction, modernization, and maintenance.
Faircurve's model on 3 Oct 2026 gave a fair value of $294.36 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave the same fair value. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $246.96 to $358.92, built from the fair value, and held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade for HII was High.
The business scored 44 out of 100 on overall quality against comparable companies. The model compared it with Moog Inc. (MOG-A), Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS), BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT), Textron Inc. (TXT), AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV), Hexcel Corporation (HXL), and Woodward, Inc. (WWD). The stock's median move around its last 8 earnings reports was 10.0%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give HII?
The calibrated range for HII over 63 trading days is $246.96 to $358.92. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $232.75 to $363.71. In 63% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does HII score on business quality?
Huntington Ingalls Industries's overall quality score is 44 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 33 | 6.5%ROIC | 9.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 10 | 0.57xFCF / net income | 1.06x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 59 | 8.2%Revenue growth, trailing | 7.7% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 67 | 0.4%Net buybacks / market value | 1.6% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 51 | 2.62xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.21x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 83 | 0.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.2 pts |
How does HII compare with similar companies?
The companies in aerospace & defense closest to Huntington Ingalls Industries in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOG-A Moog Inc. | $392.73 | $367.81 | -6.3% | Fairly valued |
| KTOS Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. | $43.07 | $40.49 | -6.0% | Fairly valued |
| BWXT BWX Technologies, Inc. | $134.86 | $142.94 | +6.0% | Fairly valued |
| TXT Textron Inc. | $77.26 | $112.09 | +45.1% | Undervalued |
| AVAV AeroVironment, Inc. | $140.82 | $151.63 | +7.7% | Fairly valued |
| SARO StandardAero, Inc. | $21.05 | $34.72 | +64.9% | Gap wider than 60% |
| HXL Hexcel Corporation | $86.41 | $91.46 | +5.8% | Fairly valued |
| WWD Woodward, Inc. | $331.62 | $311.31 | -6.1% | Fairly valued |
When does HII report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Huntington Ingalls Industries's next earnings report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 11.5% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How HII moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 10.0%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | +16.4% |
| 5 May 2026 | -12.1% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | -3.7% |
| 30 Oct 2025 | +7.9% |
| 31 Jul 2025 | +4.4% |
| 1 May 2025 | -0.1% |
| 6 Feb 2025 | -13.9% |
| 31 Oct 2024 | -24.5% |
Huntington Ingalls Industries at a glance
Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII) stands as a prominent American enterprise specializing in the comprehensive lifecycle management of military vessels, encompassing their design, construction, modernization, and maintenance.
- Market value
- $10.4B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Aerospace & Defense
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $14.0B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +7.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 10
- Beta to the US market
- 0.90
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Huntington Ingalls Industries on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for HII was $294.33. It is unchanged at $294.36 as of 3 Oct 2026. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Huntington Ingalls Industries's valuation
Is Huntington Ingalls Industries stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, HII reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $294.36 a share against a last close of $268.54, a gap of +9.6%.
What is HII's fair value?
$294.36 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $232.75 to $363.71.
What price range does the model give HII?
$246.96 to $358.92 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Huntington Ingalls Industries report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has HII moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 10.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was -24.5% around the report of 31 Oct 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for HII is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.