NYSE: HL · Other Precious Metals
Hecla Mining (HL) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Hecla Mining (HL) at $16.98 a share. The stock last closed at $17.20, which puts the model's fair value 1.3% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Hecla Mining Company.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Hecla Mining Company, along with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, acquisition, development, and extraction of both precious and base metal resources across the United States and internationally.
Faircurve's model on 26 Sep 2026 gave a fair value of $16.98 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -3.5% since the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $17.59. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $14.85 to $22.23 and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade was Medium.
The overall quality score was 74 out of 100, against comparable companies. The model compares it with RPM International Inc., Albemarle Corporation, Alcoa Corporation, Carlisle Companies Incorporated, Masco Corporation, Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc., and Owens Corning. The median size of moves around the last 8 earnings reports, ignoring direction, was 11.2%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give HL?
The calibrated range for HL over 63 trading days is $14.85 to $22.23. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that HL's own options imply (57% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $12.09 to $23.63. In 43% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does HL score on business quality?
Hecla Mining's overall quality score is 74 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 72 | 25.3%ROIC | 19.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 93 | 1.54xFCF / net income | 1.01x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 50 | 53.0%Revenue growth, trailing | 53.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 50 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 88 | -0.53xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.16x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 100 | 6.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 14.0 pts |
How does HL compare with similar companies?
The companies in other precious metals closest to Hecla Mining in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RPM RPM International Inc. | $99.19 | $125.23 | +26.3% | Undervalued |
| ALB Albemarle Corporation | $104.59 | $134.30 | +28.4% | Undervalued |
| AA Alcoa Corporation | $41.95 | $56.76 | +35.3% | Undervalued |
| CSL Carlisle Companies Incorporated | $329.34 | $329.36 | 0.0% | Fairly valued |
| MAS Masco Corporation | $68.36 | $71.71 | +4.9% | Fairly valued |
| WMS Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. | $127.27 | $125.98 | -1.0% | Fairly valued |
| OC Owens Corning | $118.36 | $132.22 | +11.7% | Fairly valued |
| SOLS Solstice Advanced Materials Inc. | $57.70 | $56.70 | -1.7% | Low evidence grade |
When does HL report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Hecla Mining's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 7.4% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. HL's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 16.4% over one month.
How HL moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 11.2%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2026 | +14.6% |
| 5 May 2026 | +3.2% |
| 17 Feb 2026 | -2.6% |
| 5 Nov 2025 | +13.2% |
| 6 Aug 2025 | +17.6% |
| 1 May 2025 | +9.3% |
| 13 Feb 2025 | -13.5% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | -4.4% |
Hecla Mining at a glance
Hecla Mining Company, along with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, acquisition, development, and extraction of both precious and base metal resources across the United States and internationally.
- Market value
- $12.2B
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Other Precious Metals
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.5B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -0.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 4
- Beta to the US market
- 2.21
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Hecla Mining on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for HL was $17.59. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $16.98, a change of -3.5%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Hecla Mining's valuation
Is Hecla Mining stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, HL reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $16.98 a share against a last close of $17.20, a gap of -1.3%.
What is HL's fair value?
$16.98 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $12.09 to $23.63.
What price range does the model give HL?
$14.85 to $22.23 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Hecla Mining report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has HL moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 11.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was +17.6% around the report of 6 Aug 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for HL is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.