NASDAQ: HUBG · Integrated Freight & Logistics
Hub Group (HUBG) fair value and price range
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Hub Group (HUBG) at $31.90 a share. The stock last closed at $29.77, which puts the model's fair value 7.2% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Hub Group, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Hub Group, Inc., a supply chain solutions provider, offers transportation and logistics management services in North America and operates in two segments. These are Intermodal and Transportation Solutions (ITS), and Logistics.
On 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $31.90 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This was a move of -1.9% from the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $32.51. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $26.61 to $38.67, built from the fair value since there is no live options data for the stock. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the model graded the evidence behind this valuation as low.
The overall quality score was 55 out of 100, against comparable companies GXO Logistics, Inc., Landstar System, Inc., FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc., C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc., J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc., and Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. Moves around the last 8 earnings reports included +0.6% on 1 Oct 2026 and -20.1% on 5 Feb 2026, with a median size of 2.5%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give HUBG?
The calibrated range for HUBG over 63 trading days is $26.61 to $38.67. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $14.20 to $59.43. In 53% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does HUBG score on business quality?
Hub Group's overall quality score is 55 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 38 | 5.2%ROIC | 6.7% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 68 | 1.08xFCF / net income | |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 43 | -6.1%Revenue growth, trailing | 1.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 61 | 1.4%Net buybacks / market value | 3.5% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 73 | 1.18xNet debt / EBITDA | 6.29x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 82 | 1.1 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 8.9 pts |
How does HUBG compare with similar companies?
The companies in integrated freight & logistics closest to Hub Group in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PBI Pitney Bowes Inc. | $16.76 | $17.85 | +6.5% | Low evidence grade |
| GXO GXO Logistics, Inc. | $46.56 | $44.68 | -4.0% | Fairly valued |
| LSTR Landstar System, Inc. | $173.48 | $157.43 | -9.3% | Fairly valued |
| FWRD Forward Air Corporation | $15.91 | $10.20 | -35.9% | Low evidence grade |
| FDXF FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. | $112.89 | $95.64 | -15.3% | Overvalued |
| CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. | $157.72 | $149.85 | -5.0% | Fairly valued |
| JBHT J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. | $234.20 | $292.25 | +24.8% | Undervalued |
| EXPD Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. | $192.47 | $190.14 | -1.2% | Fairly valued |
All integrated freight & logistics stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does HUBG report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Hub Group's next earnings report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How HUBG moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.5%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2026 | +0.6% |
| 24 Sep 2026 | -3.4% |
| 17 Sep 2026 | -1.2% |
| 10 Sep 2026 | +2.0% |
| 30 Mar 2026 | +1.9% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | -20.1% |
| 30 Oct 2025 | +3.1% |
| 31 Jul 2025 | -3.5% |
Hub Group at a glance
Hub Group, Inc., a supply chain solutions provider, offers transportation and logistics management services in North America. It operates in two segments, Intermodal and Transportation Solutions (ITS), and Logistics.
- Market value
- $1.8B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Integrated Freight & Logistics
- Beta to the US market
- 0.74
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Hub Group on the value of the whole business against its operating profit, compared with where that ratio has sat before (EV/EBITDA against its own history), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for HUBG was $32.51. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $31.90, a change of -1.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Hub Group's valuation
Is Hub Group stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts HUBG's fair value at $31.90 a share against a last close of $29.77, as of 3 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is HUBG's fair value?
$31.90 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $14.20 to $59.43.
What price range does the model give HUBG?
$26.61 to $38.67 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Hub Group report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has HUBG moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was -20.1% around the report of 5 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for HUBG is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.