NYSE: INGR · Packaged Foods
Ingredion (INGR) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Ingredion (INGR) at $106.41 a share. The stock last closed at $97.42, which puts the model's fair value 9.2% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Ingredion Incorporated.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 held the fair value at $106.41, within 1% of the run of 24 Oct 2026.
What the model makes of itThe price of $97.42 is 9.2% below it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 2 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 8% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give INGR?
The calibrated range for INGR over 63 trading days is $89.85 to $107.61. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that INGR's own options imply (27% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $75.06 to $147.15. In 58% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Ingredion Incorporated, with its affiliated entities, specialises in the global production and sale of starches and sweeteners for a diverse range of industries. The company is listed under Consumer Defensive, Packaged Foods.
Faircurve's model put the fair value of Ingredion (INGR) at $106.41 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $105.52, so the fair value moved +0.8%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days runs from $86.80 to $112.10. It is built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, and calibrated weekly against realised prices from 6,661 past valuations. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium. The grade covers input completeness, the number and agreement of comparable companies, and the width of outcomes. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The model scores the company's quality at 60 out of 100 against comparable companies. Capital discipline is the strongest factor, at 96, with net buybacks at 3.0% of market value against a peer median of 0.1%. Earnings quality scores 72, with free cash flow to net income at 1.10x against a peer median of 0.73x. Growth quality is the weakest, at 33, with trailing revenue growth at -2.8% against a peer median of 0.3%. The model compares the company with Campbell Soup Company, Pilgrim's Pride Corporation, Conagra Brands, Lamb Weston, Freshpet, Hormel Foods and McCormick & Company.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does INGR report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Ingredion's next earnings report is scheduled for 2 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 7.4% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 42 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. INGR's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 7.9% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across INGR's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.3%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in INGR
How does INGR score on business quality?
Ingredion's overall quality score is 60 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 59 | 11.8%ROIC | 9.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 72 | 1.10xFCF / net income | 0.73x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 33 | -2.8%Revenue growth, trailing | 0.3% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 96 | 3.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.1% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 74 | 0.78xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.28x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 44 | 2.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.4 pts |
How does INGR compare with similar companies?
The companies in packaged foods closest to Ingredion in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPB Campbell Soup Company | $23.43 | $19.81 | -15.5% | Overvalued |
| PPC Pilgrim's Pride Corporation | $28.62 | $32.05 | +12.0% | Fairly valued |
| CAG Conagra Brands, Inc. | $15.51 | $14.13 | -8.9% | Fairly valued |
| LW Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. | $55.08 | $55.08 | 0.0% | Fairly valued |
| POST Post Holdings, Inc. | $84.72 | $90.07 | +6.3% | Low evidence grade |
| FRPT Freshpet, Inc. | $64.82 | $67.18 | +3.6% | Fairly valued |
| HRL Hormel Foods Corporation | $22.60 | $23.64 | +4.6% | Fairly valued |
| MKC McCormick & Company, Incorporated | $50.06 | $44.95 | -10.2% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for INGR, the peer-implied price, is $157.89 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Ingredion at a glance
Ingredion Incorporated, along with its affiliated entities, specializes in the global production and sale of starches and sweeteners, catering to a diverse range of industries.
- Market value
- $6.1B
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Packaged Foods
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $7.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -0.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- -0.05
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. INGR was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Ingredion on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for INGR was $105.52. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $106.41, a change of +0.8%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Ingredion's valuation
Is Ingredion stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, INGR reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $106.41 a share against a last close of $97.42, a gap of +9.2%.
What is INGR's fair value?
$106.41 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $75.06 to $147.15.
What price range does the model give INGR?
$89.85 to $107.61 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Ingredion report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 2 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has INGR moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was +12.3% around the report of 5 Nov 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for INGR is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on INGR
The model holds no idea open on INGR today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on INGR with their outcomes. A free account is enough.