NYSE: JCI · Construction Materials
Johnson Controls International (JCI) fair value and price range
As of 29 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Johnson Controls International (JCI) at $149.32 a share. The stock last closed at $156.24, which puts the model's fair value 4.4% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Johnson Controls International plc.
Faircurve Insights · 29 Sep 2026
Johnson Controls International plc, with its subsidiaries, engages in engineering, manufacturing, commissioning, and retrofitting building products and systems in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific.
On 29 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $149.32 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -0.9% from the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $150.64. The calibrated range is $125.28 to $182.07, built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices, and held the price 60% of the time. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low.
The model compares Johnson Controls International plc with Vulcan Materials Company (VMC), Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM), Masco Corporation (MAS), Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL), Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS), and Owens Corning (OC). Around its last 8 earnings reports, the stock moved +2.6% on 29 Jul 2026, -3.8% on 6 May 2026, +6.9% on 4 Feb 2026, +10.1% on 5 Nov 2025, -6.7% on 29 Jul 2025, +2.7% on 7 May 2025, +13.9% on 5 Feb 2025, and +9.4% on 6 Nov 2024.
Written from the figures on this page for the 29 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give JCI?
The calibrated range for JCI over 63 trading days is $125.28 to $182.07. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $105.62 to $206.97. In 50% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does JCI compare with similar companies?
The companies in construction materials closest to Johnson Controls International in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRH CRH plc | $81.94 | $92.27 | +12.6% | Data under review |
| VMC Vulcan Materials Company | $243.06 | $231.20 | -4.9% | Fairly valued |
| MLM Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. | $482.27 | $398.73 | -17.3% | Overvalued |
| MAS Masco Corporation | $68.36 | $71.71 | +4.9% | Fairly valued |
| CSL Carlisle Companies Incorporated | $329.34 | $329.36 | 0.0% | Fairly valued |
| WMS Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. | $127.27 | $125.98 | -1.0% | Fairly valued |
| OC Owens Corning | $118.36 | $132.22 | +11.7% | Fairly valued |
| SPXC SPX Technologies, Inc. | $173.09 | $173.62 | +0.3% | Low evidence grade |
All construction materials stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does JCI report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Johnson Controls International's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 10.4% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How JCI moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.8%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 29 Jul 2026 | +2.6% |
| 6 May 2026 | -3.8% |
| 4 Feb 2026 | +6.9% |
| 5 Nov 2025 | +10.1% |
| 29 Jul 2025 | -6.7% |
| 7 May 2025 | +2.7% |
| 5 Feb 2025 | +13.9% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | +9.4% |
Johnson Controls International at a glance
Johnson Controls International plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in engineering, manufacturing, commissioning, and retrofitting building products and systems in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific.
- Market value
- $91.0B
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Construction Materials
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $27.6B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +8.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 12
- Beta to the US market
- 1.11
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Johnson Controls International on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for JCI was $150.64. As of 29 Sep 2026 it is $149.32, a change of -0.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Johnson Controls International's valuation
Is Johnson Controls International stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts JCI's fair value at $149.32 a share against a last close of $156.24, as of 29 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is JCI's fair value?
$149.32 a share as of 29 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $105.62 to $206.97.
What price range does the model give JCI?
$125.28 to $182.07 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Johnson Controls International report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has JCI moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was +13.9% around the report of 5 Feb 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for JCI is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.