NYSE: JEF · Capital Markets
Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) fair value and price range
As of 2 Nov 2026, Faircurve's model values Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) at $51.95 a share. The stock last closed at $48.60, which puts the model's fair value 6.9% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Jefferies Financial Group Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 2 Nov 2026 held the fair value at $51.95, within 1% of the run of 24 Oct 2026.
What the model makes of itThe price of $48.60 is 6.9% below it. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What's nextReports on 6 Jan 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 13% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give JEF?
The calibrated range for JEF over 63 trading days is $42.61 to $57.13. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that JEF's own options imply (44% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $44.85 to $59.52. In 75% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 2 Nov 2026
Jefferies Financial Group Inc. operates as a diversified global financial services firm, primarily focused on investment banking, capital markets, and asset management.
Faircurve's model put the fair value of Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) at $51.95 a share on 2 Nov 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $52.24, so the fair value moved -0.6%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $43.22 to $56.03, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply. The range is calibrated weekly against realised prices, using 6,661 past valuations refreshed on 31 Oct 2026, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade covers the number and agreement of comparable companies, the width of the range of outcomes, and whether the valuation methods agree. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The sheet gives no quality scores for the business, so this note cannot compare its quality with peers. The model compares Jefferies with Stifel Financial Corp (SF), StoneX Group Inc. (SNEX) and MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (MKTX), each of which has a fair value on the site, and with six companies that have no verdict on this date.
Written from the figures on this page for the 2 Nov 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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Faircurve's note after each US session, in your inbox. No account needed.
When does JEF report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Jefferies Financial Group's next earnings report is scheduled for 6 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 7.7% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. JEF's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 12.8% over one month.
On 5 Nov 2026 JEF moved 5.0% in one session, against the 2.5% a day that options had priced: 2.0 times the implied size.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across JEF's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.3%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in JEF
How does JEF compare with similar companies?
The companies in capital markets closest to Jefferies Financial Group in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EVR Evercore Inc. | $290.13 | n/a | n/a | Data under review |
| SF Stifel Financial Corp | $71.85 | $79.00 | +10.0% | Fairly valued |
| SNEX StoneX Group Inc. | $53.62 | $64.60 | +20.5% | Undervalued |
| MKTX MarketAxess Holdings Inc. | $165.54 | $189.27 | +14.3% | Fairly valued |
| BGC BGC Group, Inc | $10.46 | $21.81 | +108.5% | Gap wider than 60% |
| VIRT Virtu Financial, Inc. | $53.95 | $63.88 | +18.4% | Data under review |
| MC Moelis & Company | $58.38 | $60.32 | +3.3% | Low evidence grade |
| MARA Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. | $5.88 | $4.53 | -22.9% | Low evidence grade |
Jefferies Financial Group at a glance
Jefferies Financial Group Inc. operates as a diversified global financial services firm, primarily focused on investment banking, capital markets, and asset management. Its extensive operations span the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia.
- Market value
- $8.7B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Capital Markets
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -21.0%
- Analysts with estimates
- 4
- Beta to the US market
- 1.60
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Jefferies Financial Group on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for JEF was $52.24. As of 2 Nov 2026 it is $51.95, a change of -0.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Jefferies Financial Group's valuation
Is Jefferies Financial Group stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts JEF's fair value at $51.95 a share against a last close of $48.60, as of 2 Nov 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is JEF's fair value?
$51.95 a share as of 2 Nov 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $44.85 to $59.52.
What price range does the model give JEF?
$42.61 to $57.13 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Jefferies Financial Group report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 6 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has JEF moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was -13.0% around the report of 24 Jun 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for JEF is low. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on JEF
The model holds no idea open on JEF today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on JEF with their outcomes. A free account is enough.