NYSE: JOE · Real Estate Development
St. Joe (JOE) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values St. Joe (JOE) at $60.08 a share. The stock last closed at $65.38, which puts the model's fair value 8.1% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. The St. Joe Company.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
The St. Joe Company, along with its affiliated entities, functions as a real estate development, asset management, and operational enterprise, primarily located in Northwest Florida.
Faircurve's model, on 3 Oct 2026, gave a fair value of $60.08 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 26 Sep 2026, gave $60.01, so the fair value moved +0.1%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $50.13 to $72.84, built from the fair value since there is no live options data for the stock; ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade was Medium.
The overall quality score was 72 out of 100, a score against comparable companies. The model compared it with COPT Defense Properties, LXP Industrial Trust, Broadstone Net Lease, Inc., and Kilroy Realty Corporation. Around the last 8 earnings reports, the stock moved by a median size, ignoring direction, of 5.1%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give JOE?
The calibrated range for JOE over 63 trading days is $50.13 to $72.84. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $39.84 to $87.58. In 43% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does JOE score on business quality?
St. Joe's overall quality score is 72 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 86 | 12.6%ROIC | 5.9% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 80 | 1.75xFCF / net income | 2.40x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 54 | 27.5%Revenue growth, trailing | -6.5% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 80 | 1.7%Net buybacks / market value | 0.4% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 59 | 1.80xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.15x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 51 | 3.3 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 4.1 pts |
How does JOE compare with similar companies?
The companies in real estate development closest to St. Joe in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HGV Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. | $34.86 | $52.56 | +50.8% | Low evidence grade |
| MRP Millrose Properties, Inc. | $24.61 | $34.31 | +39.4% | Low evidence grade |
| CDP COPT Defense Properties | $33.57 | $21.29 | -36.6% | Overvalued |
| LXP LXP Industrial Trust | $60.95 | $49.64 | -18.6% | Overvalued |
| BNL Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. | $18.56 | $19.62 | +5.7% | Fairly valued |
| APLE Apple Hospitality REIT, Inc. | $16.51 | $18.08 | +9.5% | Data under review |
| KRC Kilroy Realty Corporation | $33.63 | $30.94 | -8.0% | Overvalued |
| SLG SL Green Realty Corp. | $48.81 | $16.89 | -65.4% | Gap wider than 60% |
When does JOE report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
St. Joe's next earnings report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How JOE moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.1%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 29 Jul 2026 | +1.3% |
| 29 Apr 2026 | -9.0% |
| 25 Feb 2026 | -0.3% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | +8.2% |
| 23 Jul 2025 | +2.7% |
| 23 Apr 2025 | +13.7% |
| 26 Feb 2025 | +3.3% |
| 23 Oct 2024 | -7.0% |
St. Joe at a glance
The St. Joe Company, along with its affiliated entities, functions as a real estate development, asset management, and operational enterprise, primarily located in Northwest Florida.
- Market value
- $3.7B
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Real Estate Development
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $90M
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -83.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 1
- Beta to the US market
- 0.30
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices St. Joe on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for JOE was $60.01. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $60.08, a change of +0.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about St. Joe's valuation
Is St. Joe stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, JOE reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $60.08 a share against a last close of $65.38, a gap of -8.1%.
What is JOE's fair value?
$60.08 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $39.84 to $87.58.
What price range does the model give JOE?
$50.13 to $72.84 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does St. Joe report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has JOE moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was +13.7% around the report of 23 Apr 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for JOE is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.