NYSE: JPM · Diversified Banks
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 1 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values JPMorgan Chase (JPM) at $316.05 a share. The stock last closed at $332.38, which puts the model's fair value 4.9% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Faircurve Insights · 1 Oct 2026
JPMorgan Chase & Co. operates as a bank and financial holding company in the United States, rest of North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, Latin America, and the Caribbean.
On 1 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $316.05 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 26 Sep 2026, gave $320.86, and the fair value moved -1.5%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $311.13 to $373.08, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, calibrated weekly against realised prices (3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade was High.
The model compares the company with Bank of America Corporation (BAC), Wells Fargo & Company (WFC), and Citigroup Inc. (C). The company's stock moved around its last 8 earnings reports as follows: 14 Jul 2026 +3.7%, 14 Apr 2026 -2.5%, 13 Jan 2026 -5.1%, 14 Oct 2025 -0.7%, 15 Jul 2025 -1.0%, 11 Apr 2025 +3.4%, 15 Jan 2025 +2.7%, 11 Oct 2024 +4.1%. The median size, ignoring direction, was 3.0%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 1 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give JPM?
The calibrated range for JPM over 63 trading days is $311.13 to $373.08. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that JPM's own options imply (26% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $245.29 to $399.61. In 44% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does JPM compare with similar companies?
The companies in diversified banks closest to JPMorgan Chase in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAC Bank of America Corporation | $53.75 | $53.64 | -0.2% | Fairly valued |
| WFC Wells Fargo & Company | $80.45 | $92.58 | +15.1% | Undervalued |
| C Citigroup Inc. | $128.50 | $131.44 | +2.3% | Fairly valued |
| USB U.S. Bancorp | $57.51 | $53.93 | -6.2% | Low evidence grade |
When does JPM report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
JPMorgan Chase's next earnings report is scheduled for 13 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 4.6% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. JPM's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 7.4% over one month.
How JPM moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.0%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 14 Jul 2026 | +3.7% |
| 14 Apr 2026 | -2.5% |
| 13 Jan 2026 | -5.1% |
| 14 Oct 2025 | -0.7% |
| 15 Jul 2025 | -1.0% |
| 11 Apr 2025 | +3.4% |
| 15 Jan 2025 | +2.7% |
| 11 Oct 2024 | +4.1% |
JPMorgan Chase at a glance
JPMorgan Chase & Co. operates as a bank and financial holding company in the United States, rest of North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, Latin America, and the Caribbean.
- Market value
- $919.2B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Diversified Banks
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -25.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 9
- Beta to the US market
- 1.02
- First valued by Faircurve
- 4 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices JPMorgan Chase on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for JPM was $320.86. As of 1 Oct 2026 it is $316.05, a change of -1.5%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about JPMorgan Chase's valuation
Is JPMorgan Chase stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, JPM reads as Fairly valued as of 1 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $316.05 a share against a last close of $332.38, a gap of -4.9%.
What is JPM's fair value?
$316.05 a share as of 1 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $245.29 to $399.61.
What price range does the model give JPM?
$311.13 to $373.08 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does JPMorgan Chase report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 13 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has JPM moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was -5.1% around the report of 13 Jan 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for JPM is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.