NASDAQ: LGIH · Residential Construction
LGI Homes (LGIH) fair value and price range
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values LGI Homes (LGIH) at $26.70 a share. The stock last closed at $48.14, which puts the model's fair value 44.5% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. LGI Homes, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
LGI Homes, Inc. engages in the design, construction, and sale of new homes in the United States. It markets and sells attached and detached entry-level homes and active adult offerings under the LGI Homes brand, and luxury homes under the Terrata Homes brand.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $26.70 a share on 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $25.57, so the fair value moved +4.4%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $22.40 to $32.56, built from the fair value because there is no live options data for the stock, and calibrated weekly against realised prices, with 4,327 past valuations refreshed on 26 Sep 2026. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low.
The business has an overall quality score of 33 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its quality factors include Profitability at 9, Earnings quality at 83, Growth quality at 30, Capital discipline at 64, Balance sheet at 0, and Stability at 9. The model compares LGI Homes, Inc. with KB Home, Green Brick Partners, Inc., M/I Homes, Inc., Cavco Industries, Inc., Meritage Homes Corporation, and Champion Homes, Inc. Moves around the last 8 earnings reports ranged from -20.4% to +19.4%, with a median size, ignoring direction, of 7.9%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give LGIH?
The calibrated range for LGIH over 63 trading days is $22.40 to $32.56. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is above this range. For names with fair value 15%+ below price, the calibrated range has held the price 40% of the time over 63 trading days, and 58% ended above it; the typical move was −0.1%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $0.00 to $68.35. In 30% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does LGIH score on business quality?
LGI Homes's overall quality score is 33 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 9 | 1.4%ROIC | 7.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 83 | 1.98xFCF / net income | 0.67x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 30 | -22.6%Revenue growth, trailing | -2.8% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 64 | 2.0%Net buybacks / market value | 4.8% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 0 | 16.00xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.72x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 9 | 3.3 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.4 pts |
How does LGIH compare with similar companies?
The companies in residential construction closest to LGI Homes in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DFH Dream Finders Homes, Inc. | $10.75 | $10.57 | -1.7% | Data under review |
| CCS Century Communities, Inc. | $59.87 | $45.92 | -23.3% | Low evidence grade |
| KBH KB Home | $45.75 | $38.61 | -15.6% | Overvalued |
| GRBK Green Brick Partners, Inc. | $66.66 | $71.20 | +6.8% | Fairly valued |
| MHO M/I Homes, Inc. | $134.76 | $173.72 | +28.9% | Undervalued |
| CVCO Cavco Industries, Inc. | $585.13 | $532.53 | -9.0% | Fairly valued |
| MTH Meritage Homes Corporation | $63.85 | $61.86 | -3.1% | Fairly valued |
| SKY Champion Homes, Inc. | $88.10 | $87.30 | -0.9% | Fairly valued |
All residential construction stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does LGIH report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
LGI Homes's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How LGIH moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.9%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2026 | +9.6% |
| 28 Apr 2026 | +5.8% |
| 17 Feb 2026 | -10.2% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | +19.4% |
| 5 Aug 2025 | +6.2% |
| 29 Apr 2025 | -20.4% |
| 25 Feb 2025 | -0.2% |
| 5 Nov 2024 | +6.2% |
LGI Homes at a glance
LGI Homes, Inc. engages in the design, construction, and sale of new homes in the United States. It markets and sells attached and detached entry-level homes and active adult offerings under the LGI Homes brand; and luxury homes under the Terrata Homes brand.
- Market value
- $1.2B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Residential Construction
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.0B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +8.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 1
- Beta to the US market
- 1.01
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices LGI Homes on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for LGIH was $25.57. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $26.70, a change of +4.4%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about LGI Homes's valuation
Is LGI Homes stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts LGIH's fair value at $26.70 a share against a last close of $48.14, as of 26 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is LGIH's fair value?
$26.70 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $0.00 to $68.35.
What price range does the model give LGIH?
$22.40 to $32.56 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does LGI Homes report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has LGIH moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was -20.4% around the report of 29 Apr 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for LGIH is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.