NYSE: LNC ยท Life Insurance
Lincoln National (LNC) fair value and price range
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Lincoln National (LNC) at $117.08 a share. The stock last closed at $40.30, which puts the model's fair value 190.5% above the price. The fair value sits more than 60% away from the price. Faircurve gives no verdict on a gap wider than 60%.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Lincoln National Corporation.
What price range does the model give LNC?
The calibrated range for LNC over 63 trading days is $98.23 to $142.76. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 30%+ above price, the calibrated range has held the price 29% of the time over 63 trading days, and 71% ended below it; the typical move was +5.7%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $91.41 to $149.79. In 100% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does LNC compare with similar companies?
The companies in life insurance closest to Lincoln National in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRI Primerica, Inc. | $275.42 | $304.49 | +10.6% | Low evidence grade |
| VOYA Voya Financial, Inc. | $96.65 | $99.36 | +2.8% | Low evidence grade |
| JXN Jackson Financial Inc. | $131.53 | $227.20 | +72.7% | Gap wider than 60% |
| CNO CNO Financial Group, Inc. | $53.86 | $43.83 | -18.6% | Low evidence grade |
| GL Globe Life Inc. | $165.68 | $193.02 | +16.5% | Low evidence grade |
| UNM Unum Group | $88.57 | $84.69 | -4.4% | Low evidence grade |
| BHF Brighthouse Financial, Inc. | $50.02 | $161.96 | +223.8% | Gap wider than 60% |
| PRU Prudential Financial, Inc. | $112.60 | $138.12 | +22.7% | Low evidence grade |
When does LNC report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Lincoln National's next earnings report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 11.1% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How LNC moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.6%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | +10.1% |
| 7 May 2026 | -4.8% |
| 12 Feb 2026 | +6.2% |
| 30 Oct 2025 | +4.9% |
| 31 Jul 2025 | +7.8% |
| 8 May 2025 | -0.6% |
| 6 Feb 2025 | +9.7% |
| 31 Oct 2024 | -0.2% |
Lincoln National at a glance
Lincoln National Corporation (LNC) is a U.S.-based financial services company primarily involved in the insurance and retirement sectors.
- Market value
- $8.0B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Life Insurance
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +8.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 7
- Beta to the US market
- 1.07
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Lincoln National on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for LNC was $122.03. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $117.08, a change of -4.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Lincoln National's valuation
Is Lincoln National stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts LNC's fair value at $117.08 a share against a last close of $40.30, as of 26 Sep 2026. The fair value sits more than 60% away from the price. Faircurve gives no verdict on a gap wider than 60%.
What is LNC's fair value?
$117.08 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $91.41 to $149.79.
What price range does the model give LNC?
$98.23 to $142.76 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Lincoln National report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has LNC moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was +10.1% around the report of 30 Jul 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for LNC is low. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.