NASDAQ: LULU · Apparel Retail
Lululemon Athletica (LULU) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Lululemon Athletica (LULU) at $115.26 a share. The stock last closed at $94.46, which puts the model's fair value 22.0% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Lululemon Athletica Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Lululemon Athletica Inc., alongside its subsidiaries, specializes in the design, global distribution, and retail of athletic apparel and accessories for both women and men.
On 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $115.26 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $118.16, and the fair value moved -2.5%. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days was $84.63 to $113.31, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, and this held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. Faircurve's model graded the evidence as Medium.
The model gave an overall quality score of 70 out of 100 against comparable companies. The quality scores for profitability, earnings quality, growth quality, capital discipline, balance sheet and stability were 85, 69, 35, 59, 78 and 99 respectively. Faircurve's model compares it with The Gap, Inc., Urban Outfitters, Inc., Burlington Stores, Inc., Abercrombie & Fitch Co., Boot Barn Holdings, Inc., American Eagle Outfitters, Inc., The Buckle, Inc., and Ross Stores, Inc. Around its last 8 earnings reports, the stock moved -16.2%, -9.4%, +3.4%, +9.2%, -15.5%, -20.9%, -13.2% and +16.7%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give LULU?
The calibrated range for LULU over 63 trading days is $84.63 to $113.31. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that LULU's own options imply (41% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $87.46 to $149.05. In 73% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does LULU score on business quality?
Lululemon Athletica's overall quality score is 70 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 85 | 25.1%ROIC | 8.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 69 | 0.96xFCF / net income | 1.01x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 35 | 4.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 3.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 59 | 10.9%Net buybacks / market value | 1.9% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 78 | 0.29xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.21x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 99 | 0.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.5 pts |
How does LULU compare with similar companies?
The companies in apparel retail closest to Lululemon Athletica in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GAP The Gap, Inc. | $22.51 | $24.81 | +10.2% | Fairly valued |
| URBN Urban Outfitters, Inc. | $80.80 | $83.07 | +2.8% | Fairly valued |
| BURL Burlington Stores, Inc. | $275.34 | $262.18 | -4.8% | Fairly valued |
| ANF Abercrombie & Fitch Co. | $135.91 | $181.37 | +33.4% | Undervalued |
| BOOT Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. | $121.88 | $124.38 | +2.1% | Fairly valued |
| AEO American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. | $17.71 | $19.25 | +8.7% | Fairly valued |
| BKE The Buckle, Inc. | $42.90 | $48.23 | +12.4% | Fairly valued |
| ROST Ross Stores, Inc. | $228.54 | $226.23 | -1.0% | Fairly valued |
When does LULU report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Lululemon Athletica's next earnings report is scheduled for 10 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 5.9% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. LULU's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 12.0% over one month.
How LULU moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 14.4%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 3 Sep 2026 | -16.2% |
| 4 Jun 2026 | -9.4% |
| 17 Mar 2026 | +3.4% |
| 11 Dec 2025 | +9.2% |
| 4 Sep 2025 | -15.5% |
| 5 Jun 2025 | -20.9% |
| 27 Mar 2025 | -13.2% |
| 5 Dec 2024 | +16.7% |
Lululemon Athletica at a glance
Lululemon Athletica Inc., alongside its subsidiaries, specializes in the design, global distribution, and retail of athletic apparel and accessories for both women and men.
- Market value
- $10.7B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Apparel Retail
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $10.4B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -5.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 18
- Beta to the US market
- 1.14
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Lululemon Athletica on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for LULU was $118.16. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $115.26, a change of -2.5%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Lululemon Athletica's valuation
Is Lululemon Athletica stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, LULU reads as Undervalued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $115.26 a share against a last close of $94.46, a gap of +22.0%.
What is LULU's fair value?
$115.26 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $87.46 to $149.05.
What price range does the model give LULU?
$84.63 to $113.31 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Lululemon Athletica report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 10 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has LULU moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 14.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was -20.9% around the report of 5 Jun 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for LULU is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.