NYSE: LUMN · Telecommunications Services
Lumen Technologies (LUMN) fair value and price range
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Lumen Technologies (LUMN) at $8.31 a share. The stock last closed at $5.75, which puts the model's fair value 44.5% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Lumen Technologies, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Lumen Technologies, Inc. functions as an infrastructure-driven technology and telecommunications provider, offering a diverse array of integrated solutions to both commercial clients and residential customers throughout the United States and internationally. It is in Communication Services, Telecommunications Services.
Faircurve's model on 3 Oct 2026 gave a fair value of $8.31 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $8.27, so the fair value moved +0.5%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $4.71 to $8.01, built from the implied volatility of the stock's own options and calibrated weekly against realised prices, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown.
The overall quality score for Lumen Technologies, Inc. is 31 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Iridium Communications Inc. and Comcast Corporation. The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports, measured from the close before each report to the close after it, had a median size of 6.1%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give LUMN?
The calibrated range for LUMN over 63 trading days is $4.71 to $8.01. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that LUMN's own options imply (75% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $0.64 to $20.30. In 59% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does LUMN score on business quality?
Lumen Technologies's overall quality score is 31 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 18 | -2.9%ROIC | 2.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 88 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 21 | -5.4%Revenue growth, trailing | 7.0% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 28 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 2.1% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 9 | 5.19xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.78x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 0 | 24.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.9 pts |
How does LUMN compare with similar companies?
The companies in telecommunications services closest to Lumen Technologies in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IRDM Iridium Communications Inc. | $48.96 | $52.90 | +8.0% | Fairly valued |
| TDS Telephone and Data Systems, Inc. | $35.39 | $33.33 | -5.8% | Low evidence grade |
| CHTR Charter Communications, Inc. | $109.29 | $154.88 | +41.7% | Low evidence grade |
| ECHO EchoStar Corporation | $94.25 | $78.46 | -16.8% | Data under review |
| SHEN Shenandoah Telecommunications Company | $10.86 | $10.02 | -7.7% | Low evidence grade |
| CMCSA Comcast Corporation | $21.57 | $27.69 | +28.4% | Undervalued |
| CCOI Cogent Communications Holdings, Inc. | $8.46 | n/a | n/a | Data under review |
| GOGO Gogo Inc. | $2.11 | $2.11 | 0.0% | Low evidence grade |
All telecommunications services stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does LUMN report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Lumen Technologies's next earnings report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 11.6% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 20 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. LUMN's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 21.8% over one month.
How LUMN moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.1%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2026 | -5.7% |
| 5 May 2026 | +5.1% |
| 3 Feb 2026 | -25.8% |
| 30 Oct 2025 | -6.5% |
| 31 Jul 2025 | -16.8% |
| 1 May 2025 | +4.8% |
| 4 Feb 2025 | +2.1% |
| 5 Nov 2024 | +20.6% |
Lumen Technologies at a glance
Lumen Technologies, Inc. functions as an infrastructure-driven technology and telecommunications provider, offering a diverse array of integrated solutions to both commercial clients and residential customers throughout the United States and internationally.
- Market value
- $5.9B
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Telecommunications Services
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $10.8B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -10.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- 2.82
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Lumen Technologies on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for LUMN was $8.27. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $8.31, a change of +0.5%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Lumen Technologies's valuation
Is Lumen Technologies stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts LUMN's fair value at $8.31 a share against a last close of $5.75, as of 3 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is LUMN's fair value?
$8.31 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $0.64 to $20.30.
What price range does the model give LUMN?
$4.71 to $8.01 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Lumen Technologies report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has LUMN moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was -25.8% around the report of 3 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for LUMN is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.