NYSE: LVS · Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) fair value and price range
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Las Vegas Sands (LVS) at $47.62 a share. The stock last closed at $36.23, which puts the model's fair value 31.4% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Las Vegas Sands Corp.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Las Vegas Sands Corporation, in conjunction with its various subsidiaries, specializes in the development, ownership, and ongoing management of comprehensive integrated resort properties across both Asian and United States markets. It is in the Consumer Cyclical, Gambling, Resorts & Casinos sector.
Faircurve's model on 26 Sep 2026 found a fair value of $47.62 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -2.3% since the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $48.76. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $32.65 to $43.45, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, calibrated weekly against realised prices, and held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low.
The overall quality score is 74 out of 100, against comparable companies Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN) and Red Rock Resorts, Inc. (RRR). Moves around the last 8 earnings reports, measured from the close before each report to the close after it, ranged from -12.7% to +12.4%. The median size, ignoring direction, was 8.8%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give LVS?
The calibrated range for LVS over 63 trading days is $32.65 to $43.45. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that LVS's own options imply (40% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $21.77 to $87.98. In 59% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does LVS score on business quality?
Las Vegas Sands's overall quality score is 74 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 22.8%ROIC | 1.7% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 97 | 1.59xFCF / net income | |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 57 | 15.2%Revenue growth, trailing | 1.7% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 70 | 6.9%Net buybacks / market value | 7.6% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 44 | 2.57xNet debt / EBITDA | 6.15x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 18 | 10.7 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 7.6 pts |
How does LVS compare with similar companies?
The companies in gambling, resorts & casinos closest to Las Vegas Sands in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WYNN Wynn Resorts, Limited | $75.88 | $72.78 | -4.1% | Low evidence grade |
| MGM MGM Resorts International | $30.48 | $3.28 | -89.2% | Data under review |
| CZR Caesars Entertainment, Inc. | $29.65 | $28.68 | -3.3% | Low evidence grade |
| CHDN Churchill Downs Incorporated | $76.05 | $72.28 | -5.0% | Low evidence grade |
| BYD Boyd Gaming Corporation | $67.25 | $77.99 | +16.0% | Low evidence grade |
| MTN Vail Resorts, Inc. | $141.16 | $107.66 | -23.7% | Overvalued |
| VAC Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation | $104.20 | $101.30 | -2.8% | Low evidence grade |
| RRR Red Rock Resorts, Inc. | $50.31 | $60.71 | +20.7% | Undervalued |
All gambling, resorts & casinos stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does LVS report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Las Vegas Sands's next earnings report is scheduled for 21 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 5.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. LVS's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 11.6% over one month.
How LVS moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 8.8%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 22 Jul 2026 | +1.2% |
| 22 Apr 2026 | -9.7% |
| 28 Jan 2026 | -12.7% |
| 22 Oct 2025 | +12.4% |
| 23 Jul 2025 | +4.7% |
| 23 Apr 2025 | +7.9% |
| 29 Jan 2025 | +11.6% |
| 23 Oct 2024 | +1.4% |
Las Vegas Sands at a glance
Las Vegas Sands Corporation, in conjunction with its various subsidiaries, specializes in the development, ownership, and ongoing management of comprehensive integrated resort properties across both Asian and United States markets.
- Market value
- $25.3B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $14.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +6.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 11
- Beta to the US market
- 0.71
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Las Vegas Sands on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for LVS was $48.76. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $47.62, a change of -2.3%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Las Vegas Sands's valuation
Is Las Vegas Sands stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts LVS's fair value at $47.62 a share against a last close of $36.23, as of 26 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is LVS's fair value?
$47.62 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $21.77 to $87.98.
What price range does the model give LVS?
$32.65 to $43.45 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Las Vegas Sands report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 21 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has LVS moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 8.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was -12.7% around the report of 28 Jan 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for LVS is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.