Marriott International, Inc. (MAR) — Fair Value Analysis

Base-case fair value (P50): $336.01 · Current price: $372.95 · Verdict: Fairly Valued

The Verdict on MAR

Marriott International Inc/MD (MAR) currently trades at $372.95. Our proprietary Monte Carlo simulations, which rigorously model thousands of future scenarios for MAR, derive a median fair value (P50) of $336.01. This analysis indicates an -9.9% difference between the current market price and its intrinsic value, leading to our definitive "Fairly Valued" verdict for the stock. This assessment acknowledges MAR's average quality tier, reflecting a balanced operational and financial health profile relative to its industry. The simulations suggest that the current market price is largely reflecting the company's fundamental prospects without a significant premium or discount.

How MAR stacks up against peers

MAR's "Fairly Valued" verdict is further illuminated by its assessed quality tier of average. This indicates that Marriott's operational efficiency and financial health are in line with, rather than significantly superior or inferior to, its peer group within the sector. While the current price of $372.95 shows an -9.9% gap from our $336.01 median fair value, this slight divergence is well within the expected range for a company demonstrating average quality. Unlike companies with higher quality tiers that might command a premium, or those with lower tiers subject to discounts, MAR's valuation reflects its stable, middle-of-the-road standing.

What this means for investors

For investors analyzing whether MAR is overvalued based on probabilistic models, our Monte Carlo analysis firmly positions the stock as "Fairly Valued." The proximity of the current price, $372.95, to our $336.01 median fair value, underscored by an -9.9% gap, indicates that the market is largely pricing MAR efficiently. This implies a balanced risk-reward profile, where the average quality tier supports a valuation that is neither excessively optimistic nor pessimistic. While our full FairCurve distribution models include various downside scenarios and robust bull cases, the current data suggests that MAR is trading close to its intrinsic worth. Sign up for FairCurve to see the complete bear and bull case distribution and track MAR's fair value as new fundamentals are released.