Marriott International, Inc. (MAR) — Fair Value Analysis
Base-case fair value (P50): $332.75 · Current price: $370.78 · Verdict: Fairly Valued
The Verdict on MAR
Marriott International (MAR) is currently assessed as Fairly Valued based on our latest Monte Carlo simulations. With MAR trading at $370.78, our median fair value (P50) estimate stands at $332.75. This indicates a projected -10.3% relative to its current market price, suggesting the stock is trading close to its intrinsic value given current market conditions and company fundamentals. Our simulations, which model thousands of forward-looking scenarios, position MAR's present valuation near the midpoint of its probable outcomes, aligning with a balanced risk-reward profile for new investments at $370.78.
How MAR stacks up against Consumer Cyclical
Within the Consumer Cyclical sector, Marriott International holds an average quality tier, reflecting its operational and financial health compared to peers. Despite this average standing, MAR's $370.78 suggests market sentiment is closely aligned with its fundamental fair value of $332.75. The -10.3% shows that the market has largely priced in the expected growth and risks for a company of MAR's quality within its sector. While the Consumer Cyclical sector can be volatile, MAR's current fair valuation at $370.78 relative to $332.75 suggests stability in its current pricing based on our extensive Monte Carlo analysis.
What this means for investors
For investors considering Marriott International, the Fairly Valued verdict indicates that the stock's $370.78 reflects a reasonable estimation of its intrinsic worth, with a -10.3% to our $332.75 median fair value. This suggests that significant undervaluation or overvaluation is not evident at this time based on our Monte Carlo simulations. While our analysis indicates MAR is fairly priced, astute investors can use this insight to understand the current market position. Sign up for a free FairCurve account to see the full bear/bull distribution and track MAR's fair value as new fundamentals are released.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MAR overvalued or undervalued right now?
Based on our Monte Carlo simulations, Marriott International (MAR) is currently assessed as Fairly Valued. The current price of $370.78 is very close to our median fair value estimate (P50) of $332.75.
What is the bear case and bull case for MAR?
The full Monte Carlo distribution, including specific bear (P10) and bull (P90) target prices, along with the probability of upside, is available with a free FairCurve account. We do not provide specific dollar values for these scenarios outside of our platform.
How does FairCurve calculate MAR's fair value?
FairCurve calculates MAR's fair value using advanced Monte Carlo simulations. This involves running thousands of forward-looking financial scenarios to derive a robust distribution of potential intrinsic values.
How can I track MAR's fair value as it changes?
You can add MAR to a free FairCurve watchlist to receive daily fair-value updates. Our system instantly re-evaluates the company's fair value when new fundamental data, such as earnings reports, are released.