NASDAQ: MRVL · Semiconductors
Marvell Technology (MRVL) fair value and price range
As of 10 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Marvell Technology (MRVL) at $257.26 a share. The stock last closed at $268.73, which puts the model's fair value 4.3% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 13 Oct 2026. Marvell Technology, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 10 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $253.24 to $257.26 (+1.6%). Analysts raised their next-twelve-month EBITDA estimates: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $268.73 is 4.3% above it. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What's nextReports on 1 Dec 2026. Options prices imply a move of about 17% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 17 Oct 2026.
What price range does the model give MRVL?
The calibrated range for MRVL over 63 trading days is $226.22 to $343.86. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that MRVL's own options imply (60% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,266 past valuations, refreshed 10 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $155.86 to $415.57. In 46% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 10 Oct 2026
Marvell Technology, Inc. provides data infrastructure semiconductor solutions in the United States, Argentina, China, India, Israel, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan. Its operations span the data center core to the network edge.
Faircurve's model on 10 Oct 2026 found a fair value of $257.26 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved +1.6% since the previous run on 3 Oct 2026, which gave $253.24; the model states this was mostly due to analysts raising their next-twelve-month EBITDA estimates. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days is $226.22 to $343.86, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, calibrated weekly against realised prices, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low.
The model's overall quality score for the business is 45 out of 100, a score against comparable companies. Notable quality factors include Growth quality at 93, with Revenue growth, trailing 42.1% against a peer median of 23.9%, and Capital discipline at 54, with Net buybacks / market value 0.8% against a peer median of 0.4%. Conversely, Profitability is 29, with ROIC 6.9% against a peer median of 19.6%; Earnings quality is 20, with FCF / net income 0.66x against a peer median of 1.16x; Balance sheet is 59, with Net debt / EBITDA 0.28x against a peer median of 0.01x; and Stability is 20, with EBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y 8.5 pts against a peer median of 3.4 pts. The model compares Marvell Technology, Inc. with KLA Corporation, Texas Instruments Incorporated, Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares, Analog Devices, Inc., QUALCOMM Incorporated, Lam Research Corporation, Applied Materials, Inc., and Intel Corp.
Written from the figures on this page for the 10 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does MRVL report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Marvell Technology's next earnings report is scheduled for 1 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 13 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 8.6% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 9 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. MRVL's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 17.3% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across MRVL's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 13.2%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in MRVL
How does MRVL score on business quality?
Marvell Technology's overall quality score is 45 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 29 | 6.9%ROIC | 19.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 20 | 0.66xFCF / net income | 1.16x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 93 | 42.1%Revenue growth, trailing | 23.9% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 54 | 0.8%Net buybacks / market value | 0.4% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 59 | 0.28xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.01x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 20 | 8.5 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 3.4 pts |
How does MRVL compare with similar companies?
The companies in semiconductors closest to Marvell Technology in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KLAC KLA Corporation | $184.00 | $197.99 | +7.6% | Fairly valued |
| TXN Texas Instruments Incorporated | $287.85 | $278.27 | -3.3% | Fairly valued |
| ARM Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares | $255.39 | $232.41 | -9.0% | Fairly valued |
| ADI Analog Devices, Inc. | $414.70 | $423.34 | +2.1% | Fairly valued |
| QCOM QUALCOMM Incorporated | $176.86 | $221.06 | +25.0% | Undervalued |
| LRCX Lam Research Corporation | $301.11 | $342.43 | +13.7% | Fairly valued |
| AMAT Applied Materials, Inc. | $464.24 | $584.87 | +26.0% | Undervalued |
| INTC Intel Corp. | $102.81 | $96.75 | -5.9% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for MRVL, the peer-implied price, is $154.35 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Marvell Technology at a glance
Marvell Technology, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides data infrastructure semiconductor solutions and spanning the data center core to network edge in the United States, Argentina, China, India, Israel, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan.
- Market value
- $241.1B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Semiconductors
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $17.2B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +47.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 25
- Beta to the US market
- 3.01
- First valued by Faircurve
- 27 Jun 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Marvell Technology on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 3 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for MRVL was $253.24. As of 10 Oct 2026 it is $257.26, a change of +1.6%. Analysts raised their next-twelve-month EBITDA estimates: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Marvell Technology's valuation
Is Marvell Technology stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts MRVL's fair value at $257.26 a share against a last close of $268.73, as of 10 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is MRVL's fair value?
$257.26 a share as of 10 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $155.86 to $415.57.
What price range does the model give MRVL?
$226.22 to $343.86 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,266 past valuations, refreshed 10 Oct 2026.
When does Marvell Technology report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 1 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has MRVL moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 13.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was +22.0% around the report of 3 Dec 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for MRVL is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on MRVL
The model holds no idea open on MRVL today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on MRVL with their outcomes. A free account is enough.