NYSE: NCLH ยท Travel Services
Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) fair value and price range
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) at $27.05 a share. The stock last closed at $15.14, which puts the model's fair value 78.7% above the price. The fair value sits more than 60% away from the price. Faircurve gives no verdict on a gap wider than 60%.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.
What price range does the model give NCLH?
The calibrated range for NCLH over 63 trading days is $13.13 to $19.41. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that NCLH's own options imply (55% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $11.13 to $47.61. In 72% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does NCLH score on business quality?
Norwegian Cruise Line's overall quality score is 34 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 55 | 8.7%ROIC | 10.9% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 40 | -1.51xFCF / net income | 1.34x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 35 | 3.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 4.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 0 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 3.9% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 28 | 5.69xNet debt / EBITDA | 5.23x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 0 | 98.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 3.7 pts |
How does NCLH compare with similar companies?
The companies in travel services closest to Norwegian Cruise Line in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TNL Travel + Leisure Co. | $62.92 | $87.39 | +38.9% | Undervalued |
| EXPE Expedia Group, Inc. | $265.00 | $329.19 | +24.2% | Undervalued |
| CCL Carnival Corporation & plc | $25.76 | $35.51 | +37.8% | Undervalued |
| TRIP Tripadvisor, Inc. | $8.51 | $9.67 | +13.6% | Fairly valued |
| RCL Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. | $277.74 | $258.69 | -6.9% | Low evidence grade |
| ABNB Airbnb, Inc. | $162.43 | $151.05 | -7.0% | Fairly valued |
| BKNG Booking Holdings Inc. | $159.02 | $189.22 | +19.0% | Undervalued |
When does NCLH report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Norwegian Cruise Line's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 7.1% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. NCLH's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 15.9% over one month.
How NCLH moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 9.6%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | -10.7% |
| 4 May 2026 | -9.9% |
| 2 Mar 2026 | -14.2% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | -16.1% |
| 31 Jul 2025 | +4.7% |
| 30 Apr 2025 | -6.4% |
| 27 Feb 2025 | -9.3% |
| 31 Oct 2024 | +4.4% |
Norwegian Cruise Line at a glance
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH), along with its subsidiary companies, operates as a major global cruise enterprise. Its operations span North America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, and other international markets.
- Market value
- $6.7B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Travel Services
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $10.4B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +2.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 13
- Beta to the US market
- 1.65
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Norwegian Cruise Line on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for NCLH was $26.73. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $27.05, a change of +1.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Norwegian Cruise Line's valuation
Is Norwegian Cruise Line stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts NCLH's fair value at $27.05 a share against a last close of $15.14, as of 3 Oct 2026. The fair value sits more than 60% away from the price. Faircurve gives no verdict on a gap wider than 60%.
What is NCLH's fair value?
$27.05 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $11.13 to $47.61.
What price range does the model give NCLH?
$13.13 to $19.41 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Norwegian Cruise Line report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has NCLH moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 9.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was -16.1% around the report of 4 Nov 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for NCLH is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.