NASDAQ: NFLX · Entertainment
Netflix (NFLX) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Netflix (NFLX) at $92.32 a share. The stock last closed at $67.06, which puts the model's fair value 37.7% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Netflix, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Netflix, Inc. serves as a worldwide entertainment provider. Its comprehensive library features television series, motion pictures, documentaries, and mobile games, spanning numerous genres and languages.
On 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $92.32 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $93.52, and the fair value moved -1.3%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $59.74 to $82.09, which held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade was Medium.
The company's overall quality score was 71 out of 100, against comparable companies. The model compares it with The Walt Disney Company (DIS), Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. (LYV), Fox Corporation (FOXA), Fox Corporation (FOX), and Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG). The stock moved -6.4% on 16 Jul 2026, -9.7% on 16 Apr 2026, -3.0% on 20 Jan 2026, -9.9% on 21 Oct 2025, -3.3% on 17 Jul 2025, +2.7% on 17 Apr 2025, +11.2% on 21 Jan 2025, and +8.8% on 17 Oct 2024.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give NFLX?
The calibrated range for NFLX over 63 trading days is $59.74 to $82.09. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that NFLX's own options imply (45% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $72.36 to $115.45. In 82% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does NFLX score on business quality?
Netflix's overall quality score is 71 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 90 | 33.6%ROIC | 1.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 23 | 0.81xFCF / net income | 2.77x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 72 | 15.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 9.7% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 76 | 3.3%Net buybacks / market value | 0.4% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 73 | 0.17xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.42x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 98 | 1.0 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 6.8 pts |
How does NFLX compare with similar companies?
The companies in entertainment closest to Netflix in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DIS The Walt Disney Company | $102.19 | $137.53 | +34.6% | Undervalued |
| WBD Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. | $30.94 | $27.62 | -10.7% | Low evidence grade |
| LYV Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. | $168.77 | $197.01 | +16.7% | Undervalued |
| FOXA Fox Corporation | $62.28 | $64.66 | +3.8% | Fairly valued |
| FOX Fox Corporation | $55.89 | $59.40 | +6.3% | Fairly valued |
| WMG Warner Music Group Corp. | $26.82 | $32.17 | +19.9% | Undervalued |
| TKO TKO Group Holdings, Inc. | $175.58 | $212.73 | +21.2% | Low evidence grade |
| PSKY Paramount Skydance Corporation Class B Common Stock | $9.50 | $8.80 | -7.4% | Low evidence grade |
When does NFLX report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Netflix's next earnings report is scheduled for 20 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 4.5% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. NFLX's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 12.9% over one month.
How NFLX moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.6%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 16 Jul 2026 | -6.4% |
| 16 Apr 2026 | -9.7% |
| 20 Jan 2026 | -3.0% |
| 21 Oct 2025 | -9.9% |
| 17 Jul 2025 | -3.3% |
| 17 Apr 2025 | +2.7% |
| 21 Jan 2025 | +11.2% |
| 17 Oct 2024 | +8.8% |
Netflix at a glance
Netflix, Inc. serves as a worldwide entertainment provider. Its comprehensive library features television series, motion pictures, documentaries, and mobile games, spanning numerous genres and languages.
- Market value
- $296.2B
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Entertainment
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $55.5B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +13.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 32
- Beta to the US market
- 0.31
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Netflix on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for NFLX was $93.52. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $92.32, a change of -1.3%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Netflix's valuation
Is Netflix stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, NFLX reads as Undervalued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $92.32 a share against a last close of $67.06, a gap of +37.7%.
What is NFLX's fair value?
$92.32 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $72.36 to $115.45.
What price range does the model give NFLX?
$59.74 to $82.09 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Netflix report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 20 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has NFLX moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was +11.2% around the report of 21 Jan 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for NFLX is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.