NYSE: NWN · Regulated Gas
Northwest Natural (NWN) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Northwest Natural (NWN) at $57.21 a share. The stock last closed at $47.38, which puts the model's fair value 20.7% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Northwest Natural Holding Company.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Northwest Natural Holding Company (NWN) operates primarily through its subsidiary, Northwest Natural Gas Company, delivering regulated natural gas to diverse clientele across Oregon.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $57.21 a share on 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -1.5% from the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $58.11. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $48.00 to $69.76, built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium.
The overall quality score is 59 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Chesapeake Utilities Corporation (CPK), MDU Resources Group, Inc. (MDU), ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS), New Jersey Resources Corporation (NJR), Black Hills Corporation (BKH), Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. (SWX), and UGI Corporation (UGI). The moves around the last 8 earnings reports show a median size of 2.3%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give NWN?
The calibrated range for NWN over 63 trading days is $48.00 to $69.76. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 15 to 30% above price, the calibrated range has held the price 50% of the time over 63 trading days, and 47% ended below it; the typical move was +4.1%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $35.69 to $82.74. In 64% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does NWN score on business quality?
Northwest Natural's overall quality score is 59 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 93 | 7.3%ROIC | 5.2% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 8 | -2.11xFCF / net income | -1.40x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 64 | 11.8%Revenue growth, trailing | 8.7% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 53 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 28 | 5.52xNet debt / EBITDA | 4.72x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 88 | 1.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.6 pts |
How does NWN compare with similar companies?
The companies in regulated gas closest to Northwest Natural in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPK Chesapeake Utilities Corporation | $127.38 | $126.92 | -0.4% | Fairly valued |
| MDU MDU Resources Group, Inc. | $18.61 | $18.08 | -2.8% | Fairly valued |
| OGS ONE Gas, Inc. | $72.57 | $83.50 | +15.1% | Undervalued |
| SR Spire Inc. | $77.54 | $59.60 | -23.1% | Data under review |
| NJR New Jersey Resources Corporation | $51.59 | $51.92 | +0.6% | Fairly valued |
| BKH Black Hills Corporation | $70.96 | $70.97 | 0.0% | Fairly valued |
| SWX Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. | $82.69 | $74.95 | -9.4% | Fairly valued |
| UGI UGI Corporation | $37.20 | $43.13 | +15.9% | Undervalued |
When does NWN report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Northwest Natural's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How NWN moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.3%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | +4.2% |
| 6 May 2026 | -4.8% |
| 27 Feb 2026 | +4.6% |
| 5 Nov 2025 | -0.3% |
| 5 Aug 2025 | -1.2% |
| 6 May 2025 | -1.7% |
| 28 Feb 2025 | +3.0% |
| 12 Nov 2024 | -0.4% |
Northwest Natural at a glance
Northwest Natural Holding Company (NWN) operates primarily through its subsidiary, Northwest Natural Gas Company, delivering regulated natural gas to a diverse clientele including residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation customers across Oregon.
- Market value
- $2.0B
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Regulated Gas
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.4B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +6.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- -0.46
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Northwest Natural on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for NWN was $58.11. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $57.21, a change of -1.5%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Northwest Natural's valuation
Is Northwest Natural stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, NWN reads as Undervalued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $57.21 a share against a last close of $47.38, a gap of +20.7%.
What is NWN's fair value?
$57.21 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $35.69 to $82.74.
What price range does the model give NWN?
$48.00 to $69.76 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Northwest Natural report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has NWN moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was -4.8% around the report of 6 May 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for NWN is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.