NYSE: NYT ยท Publishing
New York Times (NYT) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 21 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values New York Times (NYT) at $71.35 a share. The stock last closed at $70.21, which puts the model's fair value 1.6% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 18 Sep 2026. The New York Times Company.
What price range does the model give NYT?
The calibrated range for NYT over 63 trading days is $65.31 to $80.48. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that NYT's own options imply (30% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 2,982 past valuations, refreshed 19 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $56.48 to $88.53. In 52% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does NYT score on business quality?
New York Times's overall quality score is 88 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 21.0%ROIC | 4.7% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 100 | 1.59xFCF / net income | |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 70 | 9.2%Revenue growth, trailing | 3.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 64 | 0.6%Net buybacks / market value | 1.6% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 92 | -0.38xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.34x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 81 | 1.3 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.8 pts |
How does NYT compare with similar companies?
The companies in publishing closest to New York Times in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NWSA News Corporation | $29.78 | $29.30 | -1.6% | Fairly valued |
| NWS News Corporation | $32.68 | $30.92 | -5.4% | Fairly valued |
| SCHL Scholastic Corporation | $34.75 | $34.97 | +0.6% | Low model confidence |
| PSKY Paramount Skydance Corporation Class B Common Stock | $10.21 | $9.18 | -10.1% | Low model confidence |
| PINS Pinterest, Inc. | $18.60 | $23.49 | +26.3% | Undervalued |
| MTCH Match Group, Inc. | $43.20 | $40.08 | -7.2% | Fairly valued |
| MSGS Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. | $398.75 | $367.22 | -7.9% | Fairly valued |
| TKO TKO Group Holdings, Inc. | $189.26 | $218.60 | +15.5% | Low model confidence |
All communication services stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does NYT report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
New York Times's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 18 Sep 2026 imply a move of about 6.4% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 27 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. NYT's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 8.6% over one month.
On 14 Sep 2026 NYT moved 5.2% in one session, against the 2.1% a day that options had priced: 2.5 times the implied size.
How NYT moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.4%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | -14.3% |
| 6 May 2026 | +3.8% |
| 4 Feb 2026 | -4.3% |
| 5 Nov 2025 | +3.9% |
| 6 Aug 2025 | +8.5% |
| 7 May 2025 | +12.6% |
| 5 Feb 2025 | -12.0% |
| 4 Nov 2024 | -6.3% |
New York Times at a glance
The New York Times Company, in conjunction with its subsidiaries, furnishes news and vital information to a worldwide readership and viewership through a diverse array of digital and traditional media.
- Market value
- $11.4B
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Publishing
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $3.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +10.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- -0.08
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices New York Times on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the revenue analysts expect next year (forward EV/Sales), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 12 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for NYT was $68.45. As of 21 Sep 2026 it is $71.35, a change of +4.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about New York Times's valuation
Is New York Times stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, NYT reads as Fairly valued as of 21 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $71.35 a share against a last close of $70.21, a gap of +1.6%.
What is NYT's fair value?
$71.35 a share as of 21 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $56.48 to $88.53.
What price range does the model give NYT?
$65.31 to $80.48 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 2,982 past valuations, refreshed 19 Sep 2026.
When does New York Times report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has NYT moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was -14.3% around the report of 5 Aug 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
Model confidence for NYT is medium. Confidence reflects how complete the inputs are and how well comparable companies explain the valuation. It is not a probability that the price reaches the fair value.