NYSE: PAG · Auto Dealerships
Penske Automotive Group (PAG) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Penske Automotive Group (PAG) at $159.68 a share. The stock last closed at $212.21, which puts the model's fair value 24.8% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Overvalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Penske Automotive Group, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the price chart, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $155.86 to $159.68 (+2.5%). Net debt fell on the latest balance sheet: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $212.21 is 24.8% above it: Overvalued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 10 Feb 2027. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give PAG?
The calibrated range for PAG over 63 trading days is $129.35 to $190.74. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is above this range. For names with fair value 15%+ below price, the calibrated range has held the price 35% of the time over 63 trading days, and 64% ended above it; the typical move was −4.7%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $100.37 to $227.94. In 25% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) is a comprehensive transportation services enterprise. It is primarily involved in running automotive and commercial truck dealerships.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $159.68 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $155.86, so the fair value moved +2.5%. In the model's own words: "Net debt fell on the latest balance sheet: most of the move." The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $129.35 to $190.74. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence Medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
On quality, the model gives the business a score of 36 out of 100 against comparable companies. The strongest factors are Balance sheet at 68, with net debt to EBITDA of 5.16x against a peer median of 6.32x, and Stability at 63, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility of 0.6 pts against a peer median of 0.7 pts. The weakest are Profitability and Growth quality, both at 25. Profitability shows ROIC of 6.2% against a peer median of 7.5%. The model compares the company with Rush Enterprises, Inc. (RUSHA) and Valvoline Inc. (VVV).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does PAG report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Penske Automotive Group's next earnings report is scheduled for 10 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How PAG moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 1.6%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 28 Oct 2026 | +0.1% |
| 29 Jul 2026 | +0.3% |
| 29 Apr 2026 | +6.2% |
| 11 Feb 2026 | +7.8% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | -1.2% |
| 31 Jul 2025 | +0.9% |
| 13 Feb 2025 | +6.0% |
| 29 Oct 2024 | -2.1% |
How does PAG score on business quality?
Penske Automotive Group's overall quality score is 36 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 25 | 6.2%ROIC | 7.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 32 | 0.56xFCF / net income | 1.16x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 25 | -0.2%Revenue growth, trailing | 4.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 44 | 0.6%Net buybacks / market value | 6.1% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 68 | 5.16xNet debt / EBITDA | 6.32x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 63 | 0.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 0.7 pts |
How does PAG compare with similar companies?
The companies in auto dealerships closest to Penske Automotive Group in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KMX CarMax, Inc. | $53.38 | $28.75 | -46.1% | Low evidence grade |
| LAD Lithia Motors, Inc. | $298.77 | $249.55 | -16.5% | Low evidence grade |
| AN AutoNation, Inc. | $178.51 | $276.95 | +55.1% | Data under review |
| RUSHA Rush Enterprises, Inc. | $44.27 | $42.35 | -4.3% | Fairly valued |
| OPLN OPENLANE, Inc. | $38.88 | $38.18 | -1.8% | Data under review |
| VVV Valvoline Inc. | $33.74 | $33.20 | -1.6% | Fairly valued |
| ABG Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. | $197.77 | $215.26 | +8.8% | Low evidence grade |
| GPI Group 1 Automotive, Inc. | $265.01 | $281.38 | +6.2% | Low evidence grade |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for PAG, the peer-implied price, is $83.97 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Penske Automotive Group at a glance
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) is a comprehensive transportation services enterprise, primarily involved in running automotive and commercial truck dealerships.
- Market value
- $13.9B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Auto Dealerships
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $33.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +2.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- 0.42
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 3 Nov 2026, 52.1% of the 1,081 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. PAG was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Penske Automotive Group on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for PAG was $155.86. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $159.68, a change of +2.5%. Net debt fell on the latest balance sheet: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Penske Automotive Group's valuation
Is Penske Automotive Group stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, PAG reads as Overvalued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $159.68 a share against a last close of $212.21, a gap of -24.8%.
What is PAG's fair value?
$159.68 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $100.37 to $227.94.
What price range does the model give PAG?
$129.35 to $190.74 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Penske Automotive Group report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 10 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has PAG moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 1.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was +7.8% around the report of 11 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for PAG is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on PAG
The model holds no idea open on PAG today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on PAG with their outcomes. A free account is enough.