Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) — Fair Value Analysis
Base-case fair value (P50): $89.89 · Current price: $62.02 · Verdict: Undervalued
The Verdict on PARR
Based on comprehensive Monte Carlo simulations, PAR PACIFIC HOLDINGS INC (PARR) is not overvalued; rather, it appears significantly undervalued at its current market price of $62.02. Our analysis establishes a median fair value (P50) of $89.89, indicating a substantial +44.9% upside potential from present levels. This robust fair value estimate, derived from thousands of forward-looking scenarios, points to a clear discrepancy between PARR’s intrinsic worth and its current trading price. Investors observing the current $62.02 valuation should recognize the compelling implied potential suggested by the $89.89 P50 target, affirming an "undervalued" verdict.
How PARR stacks up against peers
PARR’s operational and financial health is assessed as "strong" when benchmarked against its sector peers. This strong quality tier provides a fundamental anchor, underpinning the conviction in our median fair value estimate of $89.89. A robust financial profile generally translates to greater resilience and stability across diverse market cycles, reinforcing the attractiveness of the current $62.02 price. The significant +44.9% gap between the current price and the P50 is particularly compelling given this strong foundational quality and PARR's sector standing.
What this means for investors
For investors, the present market valuation of PARR at $62.02 signals a notable opportunity, trading considerably below our median fair value of $89.89. The substantial +44.9% difference strongly implies significant room for price appreciation from current levels. While our Monte Carlo analysis meticulously models a range of future possibilities, encompassing various downside and bull case scenarios, the company’s "strong" quality tier provides an added layer of confidence in its capacity to navigate these potential outcomes. To fully grasp the bear/bull distribution and track PARR's fair value as new fundamentals are released, sign up for a free FairCurve account.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PARR overvalued or undervalued right now?
Based on our analysis, PARR is currently undervalued. Its median fair value (P50) is estimated at $89.89, significantly above its current price of $62.02.
What is the bear case and bull case for PARR?
The full Monte Carlo distribution, including specific bear (P10) and bull (P90) targets, along with the probability of upside, is available when you sign up for a free FairCurve account.
How does FairCurve calculate PARR's fair value?
FairCurve calculates PARR's fair value using sophisticated Monte Carlo simulations, projecting thousands of forward scenarios to determine a comprehensive distribution of potential outcomes.
How can I track PARR's fair value as it changes?
Add PARR to your free FairCurve watchlist to receive daily fair-value updates and instant re-valuation whenever new earnings or significant fundamental data are released.