Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) — Fair Value Analysis

Base-case fair value (P50): $98.07 · Current price: $80.32 · Verdict: Undervalued

The Verdict on PARR

Based on our Monte Carlo simulations, PAR PACIFIC HOLDINGS INC (PARR) is currently considered Fairly Valued. While the stock trades at $80.32, our median fair value (P50) stands at $98.07, implying a potential +22.1% upside. This assessment suggests that PARR's current market price generally aligns with its intrinsic value, as modeled across thousands of forward-looking scenarios. The simulations indicate that while some upside exists, it falls within a range that positions PARR as appropriately priced given its underlying fundamentals and market context.

How PARR stacks up against peers

PARR's operational and financial health is currently rated as "average" compared to its sector peers. This average quality tier suggests that while the company is stable, it does not possess significant competitive advantages or disadvantages that would dramatically skew its valuation relative to its industry. The +22.1% potential, derived from our median fair value of $98.07 against the current $80.32, reflects this balanced position. Our analysis incorporates this quality tier into the simulation parameters, ensuring that PARR's valuation is grounded in a realistic appraisal of its standing within the competitive landscape, rather than assuming outlier performance.

What this means for investors

For investors tracking PAR PACIFIC HOLDINGS INC, the "Fairly Valued" verdict, supported by a +22.1% differential between $80.32 and our $98.07 median fair value, suggests a prudent approach. While the upside potential is present, it's not indicative of a deeply undervalued opportunity. The "average" quality tier also reinforces the expectation of performance in line with broader sector trends. To gain deeper insights into the full risk-reward spectrum and potential price targets, investors can leverage FairCurve. Sign up for FairCurve to see the full bear and bull distribution, and track PARR's fair value as new fundamentals are released.