Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) — Fair Value Analysis

Base-case fair value (P50): $70.68 · Current price: $50.89 · Verdict: Undervalued

The Verdict on PARR

Based on our comprehensive Monte Carlo simulations, PAR PACIFIC HOLDINGS INC (PARR) is currently assessed as Fairly Valued. The current market price of $50.89 sits below our calculated median fair value estimate (P50) of $70.68, indicating a potential +38.9% upside from today's levels. This substantial gap, however, places PARR squarely within a reasonable valuation range given its underlying fundamentals. Our rigorous analysis, which models thousands of forward scenarios, suggests that while there is discernible room for appreciation, the current market price broadly reflects an efficient valuation relative to its fundamental drivers and inherent risks. This assessment carefully considers the company's operational and financial health, which is classified as an average quality tier within its undefined sector.

How PARR stacks up against peers

PARR's classification within the average quality tier is a crucial factor contributing to its Fairly Valued verdict. Companies operating within this tier typically demonstrate a balanced operational and financial profile, implying neither significant sector leadership nor undue underperformance relative to broader market benchmarks. This average standing directly informs the Monte Carlo simulation's output, influencing the probabilistic outcomes that culminate in the $70.68 fair value estimate. The current $50.89 aligns with market expectations for a company of this quality, suggesting that while the indicated +38.9% offers a growth incentive, widespread valuation discrepancies relative to comparable entities are not currently evident in our models.

What this means for investors

For investors, PARR's Fairly Valued assessment, coupled with its average quality tier, implies a balanced risk-reward profile at the current $50.89. The $70.68 fair value suggests a moderate +38.9% potential, offering an attractive incentive without signaling the extreme undervaluation that might prompt more aggressive investment strategies. The spread between $50.89 and $70.68 identifies PARR as a company with room for fundamental-driven growth, rather than a significant mispricing. Our FairCurve model precisely provides this probabilistic outlook, guiding expectations beyond simple point estimates. To truly understand the full spectrum of possibilities, including specific bear-case and bull-case scenarios, sign up for a free FairCurve account and track PARR's fair value as new fundamentals are released.