NASDAQ: PFG · Asset Management
Principal Financial Group (PFG) fair value and price range
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Principal Financial Group (PFG) at $120.31 a share. The stock last closed at $111.96, which puts the model's fair value 7.5% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Principal Financial Group, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Principal Financial Group, Inc. engages in the investment management offering business. It offers financial products and services to businesses, individuals, and institutional clients.
Faircurve's model on 3 Oct 2026 found a fair value of $120.31 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $123.41, a move of -2.5%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $100.38 to $145.85, built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices, a method that held the price 60% of the time. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown.
The business has an overall quality score of 68 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its earnings quality score is 98, with FCF / net income at 3.14x compared to a peer median of 0.58x. The model compares it with T. Rowe Price Group, Inc., Franklin Resources, Inc., and Ares Management Corporation. Moves around the last 8 earnings reports ranged from +4.3% to -6.6%, with a median size of 2.7%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give PFG?
The calibrated range for PFG over 63 trading days is $100.38 to $145.85. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $75.78 to $187.82. In 55% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does PFG score on business quality?
Principal Financial Group's overall quality score is 68 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 64 | 13.7%ROIC | 9.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 98 | 3.14xFCF / net income | 0.58x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 41 | -3.1%Revenue growth, trailing | 7.9% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 47 | 4.2%Net buybacks / market value | 4.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 87 | -0.48xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.43x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 70 | 5.1 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 11.1 pts |
How does PFG compare with similar companies?
The companies in asset management closest to Principal Financial Group in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TROW T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. | $104.62 | $127.17 | +21.6% | Undervalued |
| RJF Raymond James Financial, Inc. | $158.21 | $157.79 | -0.3% | Low evidence grade |
| NTRS Northern Trust Corporation | $171.40 | $140.94 | -17.8% | Low evidence grade |
| BEN Franklin Resources, Inc. | $32.81 | $29.35 | -10.5% | Fairly valued |
| ARES Ares Management Corporation | $117.55 | $86.00 | -26.8% | Overvalued |
| EQH Equitable Holdings, Inc. | $52.64 | $61.73 | +17.3% | Low evidence grade |
| CG The Carlyle Group Inc. | $39.82 | $32.32 | -18.8% | Low evidence grade |
| IVZ Invesco Ltd. | $30.66 | $43.67 | +42.4% | Data under review |
When does PFG report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Principal Financial Group's next earnings report is scheduled for 26 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 8.6% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How PFG moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 27 Jul 2026 | +4.3% |
| 23 Apr 2026 | +2.0% |
| 9 Feb 2026 | -3.8% |
| 27 Oct 2025 | +3.2% |
| 28 Jul 2025 | -1.1% |
| 24 Apr 2025 | -0.8% |
| 6 Feb 2025 | +2.2% |
| 24 Oct 2024 | -6.6% |
Principal Financial Group at a glance
Principal Financial Group, Inc. engages in the investment management offering business. It offers financial products and services to businesses, individuals, and institutional clients.
- Market value
- $24.0B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Asset Management
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $17.6B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +4.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 6
- Beta to the US market
- 0.86
- First valued by Faircurve
- 4 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Principal Financial Group on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for PFG was $123.41. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $120.31, a change of -2.5%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Principal Financial Group's valuation
Is Principal Financial Group stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts PFG's fair value at $120.31 a share against a last close of $111.96, as of 3 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is PFG's fair value?
$120.31 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $75.78 to $187.82.
What price range does the model give PFG?
$100.38 to $145.85 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Principal Financial Group report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 26 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has PFG moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was -6.6% around the report of 24 Oct 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for PFG is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.