NYSE: PG · Household & Personal Products
Procter & Gamble (PG) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Procter & Gamble (PG) at $139.61 a share. The stock last closed at $144.91, which puts the model's fair value 3.7% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. The Procter & Gamble Company.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
The Procter & Gamble Company, commonly referred to as P&G, is a global enterprise that supplies a broad spectrum of branded consumer products to markets worldwide. It operates in the Consumer Defensive sector under Household & Personal Products.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $139.61 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations, on 3 Oct 2026. The previous run, on 26 Sep 2026, gave $141.90, which means the fair value moved -1.6%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $136.09 to $160.80, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade for this valuation is Medium.
The overall quality score for the company is 60 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Colgate-Palmolive Company (CL), The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL), Kenvue Inc. (KVUE), Kimberly-Clark Corporation (KMB), Church & Dwight Co., Inc. (CHD), The Clorox Company (CLX), e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF), and Reynolds Consumer Products Inc. (REYN). The stock's median move around its last 8 earnings reports was 2.7%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give PG?
The calibrated range for PG over 63 trading days is $136.09 to $160.80. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that PG's own options imply (24% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $116.48 to $164.96. In 43% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does PG score on business quality?
Procter & Gamble's overall quality score is 60 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 60 | 19.6%ROIC | 22.4% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 44 | 0.99xFCF / net income | 1.48x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 54 | 3.3%Revenue growth, trailing | 1.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 40 | 1.5%Net buybacks / market value | 1.8% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 89 | 1.18xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.13x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 99 | 0.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.4 pts |
How does PG compare with similar companies?
The companies in household & personal products closest to Procter & Gamble in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL Colgate-Palmolive Company | $84.26 | $90.10 | +6.9% | Fairly valued |
| EL The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. | $91.97 | $92.30 | +0.4% | Fairly valued |
| KVUE Kenvue Inc. | $17.20 | $17.85 | +3.8% | Fairly valued |
| KMB Kimberly-Clark Corporation | $94.36 | $105.96 | +12.3% | Fairly valued |
| CHD Church & Dwight Co., Inc. | $94.31 | $87.71 | -7.0% | Fairly valued |
| CLX The Clorox Company | $80.41 | $84.29 | +4.8% | Fairly valued |
| ELF e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. | $104.68 | $100.16 | -4.3% | Fairly valued |
| REYN Reynolds Consumer Products Inc. | $22.32 | $23.01 | +3.1% | Fairly valued |
All household & personal products stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does PG report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Procter & Gamble's next earnings report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 2.7% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. PG's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 6.8% over one month.
How PG moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 29 Jul 2026 | -3.2% |
| 24 Apr 2026 | +1.8% |
| 22 Jan 2026 | +2.8% |
| 24 Oct 2025 | -0.3% |
| 29 Jul 2025 | -2.7% |
| 24 Apr 2025 | -2.8% |
| 22 Jan 2025 | +2.7% |
| 18 Oct 2024 | -1.6% |
Procter & Gamble at a glance
The Procter & Gamble Company, commonly referred to as P&G, is a global enterprise that supplies a broad spectrum of branded consumer products to markets worldwide.
- Market value
- $344.5B
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Household & Personal Products
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $89.4B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +2.0%
- Analysts with estimates
- 15
- Beta to the US market
- -0.17
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Procter & Gamble on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for PG was $141.90. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $139.61, a change of -1.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Procter & Gamble's valuation
Is Procter & Gamble stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, PG reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $139.61 a share against a last close of $144.91, a gap of -3.7%.
What is PG's fair value?
$139.61 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $116.48 to $164.96.
What price range does the model give PG?
$136.09 to $160.80 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Procter & Gamble report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has PG moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was -3.2% around the report of 29 Jul 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for PG is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.