NYSE: PPL · Regulated Electric
PPL (PPL) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values PPL (PPL) at $34.03 a share. The stock last closed at $32.80, which puts the model's fair value 3.8% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. PPL Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
PPL Corporation provides electricity and natural gas to approximately 3.6 million customers in the United States. It operates in three segments: Kentucky Regulated, Pennsylvania Regulated, and Rhode Island Regulated.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $34.03 a share on 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $35.53, a move of -4.2%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $28.55 to $41.49, built from the fair value, and held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is High.
The overall quality score is 57 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with CenterPoint Energy, Inc., FirstEnergy Corp., DTE Energy Company, Ameren Corporation, CMS Energy Corporation, and Evergy, Inc. The stock moved a median of 1.1% around its last 8 earnings reports.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give PPL?
The calibrated range for PPL over 63 trading days is $28.55 to $41.49. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $24.79 to $44.15. In 56% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does PPL score on business quality?
PPL's overall quality score is 57 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 43 | 5.3%ROIC | 5.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 73 | 0.27xFCF / net income | -0.85x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 48 | 6.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 9.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 64 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 72 | 4.98xNet debt / EBITDA | 5.53x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 63 | 2.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 3.0 pts |
How does PPL compare with similar companies?
The companies in regulated electric closest to PPL in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES Eversource Energy | $64.50 | $82.96 | +28.6% | Low evidence grade |
| CNP CenterPoint Energy, Inc. | $37.79 | $33.61 | -11.1% | Fairly valued |
| FE FirstEnergy Corp. | $43.34 | $49.12 | +13.3% | Fairly valued |
| DTE DTE Energy Company | $124.45 | $121.32 | -2.5% | Fairly valued |
| AEE Ameren Corporation | $99.94 | $100.00 | +0.1% | Fairly valued |
| EIX Edison International | $53.89 | $67.40 | +25.1% | Low evidence grade |
| CMS CMS Energy Corporation | $63.74 | $54.30 | -14.8% | Fairly valued |
| EVRG Evergy, Inc. | $79.17 | $76.01 | -4.0% | Fairly valued |
When does PPL report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
PPL's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 6.6% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How PPL moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 1.1%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | +1.1% |
| 8 May 2026 | -1.4% |
| 20 Feb 2026 | +0.8% |
| 5 Nov 2025 | +0.7% |
| 31 Jul 2025 | -1.1% |
| 30 Apr 2025 | -0.9% |
| 13 Feb 2025 | -2.3% |
| 1 Nov 2024 | -1.5% |
PPL at a glance
PPL Corporation provides electricity and natural gas to approximately 3.6 million customers in the United States. It operates in three segments: Kentucky Regulated, Pennsylvania Regulated, and Rhode Island Regulated.
- Market value
- $24.1B
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Regulated Electric
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $10.1B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +7.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 8
- Beta to the US market
- -0.13
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices PPL on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for PPL was $35.53. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $34.03, a change of -4.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about PPL's valuation
Is PPL stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, PPL reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $34.03 a share against a last close of $32.80, a gap of +3.8%.
What is PPL's fair value?
$34.03 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $24.79 to $44.15.
What price range does the model give PPL?
$28.55 to $41.49 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does PPL report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has PPL moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 1.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was -2.3% around the report of 13 Feb 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for PPL is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.