NYSE: PSX · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Phillips 66 (PSX) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Phillips 66 (PSX) at $245.90 a share. The stock last closed at $264.58, which puts the model's fair value 7.1% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Phillips 66.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Phillips 66 operates as a diversified energy company, specializing in both manufacturing and logistics. Its business model is structured across four primary segments: Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, and Marketing & Specialties (M&S).
Faircurve's model on 26 Sep 2026 gave a fair value of $245.90 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $269.66, and the fair value moved -8.8%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $237.11 to $320.47, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the evidence grade was Medium.
The overall quality score was 56 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares Phillips 66 with Valero Energy Corporation, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, HF Sinclair Corporation, PBF Energy Inc., CVR Energy, Inc., and Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. The median move around the last 8 earnings reports, ignoring direction, was 2.6%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give PSX?
The calibrated range for PSX over 63 trading days is $237.11 to $320.47. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that PSX's own options imply (42% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $159.67 to $363.25. In 47% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does PSX score on business quality?
Phillips 66's overall quality score is 56 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 88 | 16.9%ROIC | 8.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 22 | 0.90xFCF / net income | 1.26x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 53 | -7.6%Revenue growth, trailing | -4.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 56 | 1.2%Net buybacks / market value | 3.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 37 | 1.28xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.82x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 50 | 1.8 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.8 pts |
How does PSX compare with similar companies?
The companies in oil & gas refining & marketing closest to Phillips 66 in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLO Valero Energy Corporation | $406.30 | $465.30 | +14.5% | Fairly valued |
| MPC Marathon Petroleum Corporation | $422.33 | $465.47 | +10.2% | Fairly valued |
| DINO HF Sinclair Corporation | $113.36 | $133.16 | +17.5% | Undervalued |
| PBF PBF Energy Inc. | $80.78 | $109.99 | +36.2% | Undervalued |
| CVI CVR Energy, Inc. | $54.83 | $43.84 | -20.0% | Overvalued |
| PARR Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. | $84.00 | $84.58 | +0.7% | Fairly valued |
All oil & gas refining & marketing stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does PSX report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Phillips 66's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 6.1% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. PSX's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 12.3% over one month.
How PSX moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.6%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | -0.2% |
| 29 Apr 2026 | +8.5% |
| 4 Feb 2026 | +4.3% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | +2.6% |
| 25 Jul 2025 | +2.7% |
| 25 Apr 2025 | +1.0% |
| 31 Jan 2025 | -2.5% |
| 29 Oct 2024 | -5.3% |
Phillips 66 at a glance
Phillips 66 operates as a diversified energy company, specializing in both manufacturing and logistics. Its comprehensive business model is structured across four primary segments: Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, and Marketing & Specialties (M&S).
- Market value
- $102.5B
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $158.6B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +27.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 10
- Beta to the US market
- -0.07
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Phillips 66 on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for PSX was $269.66. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $245.90, a change of -8.8%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Phillips 66's valuation
Is Phillips 66 stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, PSX reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $245.90 a share against a last close of $264.58, a gap of -7.1%.
What is PSX's fair value?
$245.90 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $159.67 to $363.25.
What price range does the model give PSX?
$237.11 to $320.47 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Phillips 66 report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has PSX moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was +8.5% around the report of 29 Apr 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for PSX is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.